Scottish Independence Betting: Betfair Sportsbook pays out three days early on NO

Sorry Alex, the Betfair market has spoken...
Sorry Alex, the Betfair market has spoken...

The Betfair Sportsbook is paying out a substantial six figure sum on the NO vote three days before the market closes, fully confident that the Exchange will once again be the most accurate barometer of a political vote...

"Political bettors have often favoured the Exchange as their choice of betting platform and it has historically provided an accurate prediction of political outcomes. Paying out early on our Sportsbook is testament to the esteem in which we hold the illustrious track record of our Exchange."

The moves comes as the £8.6m Exchange market remains vehemently in favour of a NO vote at 1/41.27 (1/4 and a 79% likelihood), despite opinion polls predicting a much closer result after the votes have been counted on Friday.

Over 85% of the total volume traded is in favour of a NO vote. 
 
Several big individual trades continue to come on NO, with one customer staking £55,000 and another backing it for £27,000 on Sunday alone.
 
There has been little sign of the YES vote gaining any traction with political bettors, trading at 7/24.5 (7/2), and the average size of bet placed on this outcome under £80, in comparison to the £465 average bet for the NO vote
 
Betfair's Naomi Totten said: "Political bettors have often favoured the Exchange as their choice of betting platform and it has historically provided an accurate prediction of political outcomes. Paying out early on our Sportsbook is testament to the esteem in which we hold the illustrious track record of our Exchange.
 
"To put the current prices into context, Betfair's markets gave Mitt Romney more of a chance of beating Barack Obama in 2012, than Alex Salmond currently beating the NO campaign on Thursday."

This graph tracks the Exchange price movements for NO in recent weeks (click to enlarge)

Indy Ref Payout image.JPG

The Exchange will continue to trade until the official announcement on Friday and Betfair has created a 'swing-o-meter' to clearly show the movement of the market for the rest of the week.
 


Why is Betfair so confident in Exchange politics markets?

The 2012 US elections were a good example of how accurate Betfair's political markets are - calling results way before polls and news stations.

While a variety of early polls were maintaining the election was too close to call - as we've seen in Scotland in recent weeks - the reality was clear from the betting markets as early as 00:35 GMT, when Obama shortened under 1.2 (1/5), representing over an 80% chance to win, for the first time in the evening.

Betfair punters had Obama as a heavy favourite from the August of election year in sharp contrast to US consensus polls which had given Romney a narrow lead for much of October.

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