Premier League Relegation: Back Tigers to hit rock bottom and Eagles to struggle at 6/1

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In the Premier League era, 40 points was always the tally banded about in order to secure top flight status. 

West Ham (42 points in 02/03), Bolton (40 points in 97/98) and Sunderland (40 points in 96/97) are the only exceptions. 

These days, the total required is generally a bit lower.

Across the last 15 seasons, the average points won by teams which finished in 17th is 37.26 while teams finishing in 18th have averaged 33.26 points.

More recently though, 30 points would have been enough to survive in half of the last six seasons. 

In fact, heading into the 2025/26 Premier League campaign, all of the previous six new-boys made an instant return to the Championship, and their attempts to survive ranged from the feeble to the embarrassing, with the basement boys both breaking records.

In 2023/24, Sheffield United went down with 16 points, conceding the most goals in Premier League history (104). The following season, Southampton ran Derby's infamous points tally of 11 close, finishing a point better off. But the Saints did become the earliest side to be relegated, going down with seven games to spare. 

Of those six yo-yo sides, Luton - who came up via the play-offs - made the best attempt of survival finishing six points from safety. But their tally of 26 points was the lowest of any side to finish 17th since the turn of the century. And it was beaten by one point the following season after Leicester finished on 25 points. 

So, ahead of last season, it looked like the writing was on the wall for Burnley, Leeds and Sunderland. The gap from the second tier to the top flight had become too big to bridge but that didn't prove to be the case at all.

Leeds survived. Sunderland thrived. And West Ham were relegated with the joint-highest points total of any side since Birmingham back in the 2010/11 season (39).

The success stories from last season could have paved the way for the next trio of Championship promotion hopefuls and with the 2026/27 Premier League campaign almost upon us, I'll be looking at the foot of the division. 

How did two of last season's new-boys buck the recent trend? Which of last season's top flight residents are in trouble? And crucially, is there any value to be had in the relegation markets?

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Sportsbook Relegation Odds

• Hull: 1/71.14
• Ipswich: 4/61.67
• Coventry: 4/61.67 
• Sunderland: 3/14.00
• Fulham: 5/16.00
• Crystal Palace: 6/17.00
• Leeds: 6/17.00 
• Brentford: 8/19.00
• Nottingham Forest: 8/19.00 
• Newcastle: 17/29.50
• Bournemouth: 9/110.00
• Everton: 9/110.00 
• Manchester City: 10/111.00

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How did last season's promoted sides do? 

The three promoted sides are the favourites for the drop this season. As was the case last campaign. Burnley were around 2/71.29,  Sunderland 1/31.33 and Leeds 11/102.11. 

Despite spending over £100m, Burnley's decision to stick with Scott Parker as manager proved to be fatal. Although Parker's track record in the Championship is faultless - promoted in three out of three seasons with Fulham, Bournemouth and Burnley - his record in the top flight is bad, with his four stints either ending in dismissal or relegation. 

It goes to show without a competent manager, an open checkbook isn't the key to survival, although it certainly does help. 

Sunderland were the biggest spenders of last season's newbies. Their transfer strategy was to sign under valued pedigree from across Europe and it paid dividends. 

Despite gaining promotion via the play-offs, they comfortably finished as the best promoted side, securing European football in the process. 

Fighting on two fronts will be tricky for Regis Le Bris this term, and it could explain why they are 3/14.00 fourth favourites for relegation. The challenges of Europa League football and the gruelling Thursday, Sunday schedule it brings has hampered teams with similar resources in the past. 

But ultimately I think there are better options in the relegation market. 

Leeds are best avoided at 6/17.00 as well. 

It is easy to forget Daniel Farke completely reinvented himself last season, and having made some eye-catching signings already this summer, his side could break into the top 10. 

Farke won his third Championship title in 24/25 but heading into the 25/26 Premier League season, his job was under scrutiny. 

He'd had two attempts at the top flight with Norwich, both followed titles and both ended with Norwich finishing as the top flights basement boys. 

In the past, Farke was guilty of trying to play the same expansive, open football which got him promoted but last season he ripped up his own play-book.

Leeds signed big players, made themselves tough to beat and cruised to safety. Only Bournemouth (18) drew more games then Leeds (14) as they finished in 14th on 47 points. 

With the acquisitions of James Trafford from Manchester City, Harry Wilson from Fulham and Tarik Muharemovic from Juventus, I'd be looking more towards the 9/43.25 about a top half finish then relegation this season. 

Not least because the signing of a genuinely top class keeper could carry them from mid-table obscurity to European football. 

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How will this season's promoted sides do? 

Coventry 4/61.67 to be relegated

Coventry, last season's title winners, look like the best equipped side to survive. 

Aside from winning the most points in the Championship (95), they scored the most goals (97) and conceded the fewest in the division (45). 

Looking back at recent seasons, usually it is the sides promoted with the best defensive numbers who make the best fist of survival, but more on that latter. 

Offensively, the Sky Blues had five players to hit double figures for league goals. This attacking depth will allow Frank Lampard to keep things fresh but there are question marks over if any of them can adapt to the jump up in level.

In terms of transfers, they've signed Carl Rushworth on a permanent basis, he didn't miss a minute last season and is a crucial part of the back line. Frank Onyeka has also made his move permanent. Joining in January, the former Brentford midfielder was pivotal in pushing Coventry towards the title as they started to falter around Christmas, only winning four of 14 games (D4 L5) going into the new year.

It's almost enough to tempt me into taking the 6/42.50 about Coventry to be the top promoted team. I'll need to see how Frank Lampard evolves the side tactically first though. 

Similar to Leeds when they came up, the Sky Blues won't be able to play the same expansive, possession based style that saw them win the second tier title. Until I see how Lampard adapts, I'll reserve judgement, although it is worth noting Lampard has the most managerial experience in the Premier League of the three promoted sides. 

He has overseen 104 top flight games, Ipswich's Gary O'Neil has taken charge of 88 matches and this will be Hull's Sergej Jakirovic first crack at the division. 

Ipswich 4/61.67 to be relegated

Next to Portman Road. After securing automatic promotion, Kieran McKenna decided to step down from his post as manager and take a year out of football. 

O'Neil, his replacement, has a decent record in the division. He guided Bournemouth to survival in his maiden managerial role back in 22/23. 

That summer, he was replaced by Andoni Iraola then took charge of Wolves ahead of the 23/24 campaign. 

His first season was good, finishing 14th and making the FA Cup quarter-finals, but was sacked before Christmas the following season after things capitulated with both his final two games ending in brawls. 

This has to be a factor for consideration, so too the fact O'Neil made an appearance on Sky Sports MNF as Wolves boss to unpack exactly how he beat his ex-club Bournemouth. 

Egotistical tendencies, and the risk of self-combustion then. But at his best, he is capable of galvanising Ipswich to compete this season. 

The Tractor Boys have added some Premier League experience to proceedings this summer, with the permanent signings of former Fulham duo Sasa Lukic and Issa Diop. 

But their squad on a whole could lack the depth to compete, not least in attack. Chuba Akpom scored a few goals in Eredivisie a couple of seasons ago but has barely featured for Lille or Ipswich since leaving the Netherlands, making 13 starts across two seasons and scoring five league goals.

Young Brazilian forward Emersonn, signed from Toulouse, is an unknown quantity. The same can be said for Abdul Fatawu, who showed promise at Leicester, and Daizen Maeda. The Japanese forward scored 40 league goals across the last two seasons at Celtic, but it remains to be seen if that form will translate to the English top flight.

All told, the 4/61.67 about them going down is probably fair. 

Hull 1/71.14 to be relegated

This leaves Hull, who appeal at 1/12.00 to finish bottom.

The Tigers were touted by many for relegation in the Championship last season but defied all expectation, and the data, to sneak a sixth place finish before going up in the play-offs. 

Jakirovic's side were the biggest outliers in terms of expected-points (xPTS), which had them finishing in 23rd, ahead of only Sheffield Wednesday. 

Take nothing away from last season's success though. 

Hull assembled an experienced squad with a spine all too familiar with promotion. John Egan, John Lunstram, Oli McBurnie, and even Kieran Dowell all having gone up from the Championship before. 

And they found success through their versatility, winning games in whatever fashion necessary, which could stand them in good stead this campaign. 

There's a couple of glaring issues with the Tigers though. 

The first is their squad. Owner Acun Ilıcalı has voiced his frustration this summer over the clubs inability to tempt the players they have on their wishlist, not for lack of funds though. 

So far, their most expensive signing is goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis from Olympiacos. Matt Targett and Jack Butland are the only acquisitions to date with Premier League experience. 

The other issue is the sheer amount of goals they conceded last season, only Leicester (23rd), Sheffield Wednesday (24th) and QPR (15th) conceded more then Hull (66). And the Tigers had an expected-goals-against (xGA) of 80.1 which was the second highest total in the division.

For context, across the last six seasons, only four of the last 18 teams promoted from the second tier have conceded 50 goals or more (not including this season's three). And only one of those went on to concede less goals in the Premier League, then they did en route to promotion in the previous season. 

So survival will be nigh on impossible if the Tigers ship 80 goals or more the season, as I expect them to do.  

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What established clubs are at risk of going down? 

Nine clubs are set to start the 26/27 season with a new manager in the dugout, that's the highest number ever for the opening Premier League weekend. 

And with all this change, I think there's a couple of the more established Premier League clubs worth considering for the drop. 

Crystal Palace 6/17.00 to be relegated

The first is Crystal Palace at 6/17.00 with the Sportsbook. 

After winning the FA Cup, the Community Shield and the Europa Conference League within the last two seasons, the Eagles look set to regress. 

Their success was a culmination of brilliant scouting and the recruitment of a potentially elite coach in Oliver Glasner. 

Sporting Director Dougie Freedman was responsible for both but he has left his post. He played a major role in appointing Glasner and signing the likes of Conor Gallagher (loan), Marc Guehi, Michael Olise, Adam Wharton and Eberchi Eze.

Without his eye for talent, the squad could go a little stale. And with the club balancing domestic duties with the Europa League this term, their pre-season price for the drop is worth a punt. 

Fulham 5/16.00 to be relegated

At 5/16.00 with the Sportsbook, Fulham are also worth a look to be relegated. 

It has become all too familiar for the Cottagers to lose their best players ahead of the new season but this time around it feels different. 

Before the 23/24 campaign, Aleksandar Mitrovic departed for Saudi Arabia and the following season Joao Palhinha went to Bayern Munich. 

Fulham found a way to compete though because of the man in the dugout. But Marco Silva's departure has put a completely different spin on this summer business. 

Harry Wilson's gone to Leeds, Raul Jimenez has gone back to Wolves, with Diop and Lukic making the switch to Ipswich. That's a lot of minutes, goals and top flight experience to replace. 

Last season, Wilson and Jimenez finished as Fulham's top goalscorers with a combined total of 19. And between them, the quartet made 101 top flight appearances last term. 

The West Londoners signings look impressive on paper. Splurging just shy of £75m on Real Madrid duo Gonzalo Garcia and Cesar Palacios, Jonah Kusi-Asare from Bayern Munich and highly regarded midfielder Shea Charles from Southampton. 

How quickly these signings adapt remains to be seen. But in what feels like a transitional season, the appointment of rookie manager Alvaro Arbeloa feels like a big risk. 

No doubt the former Los Blancos full-backs ties to Madrid were a factor in signing Garcia and Palacios. As a coach, Arbeloa rose through their ranks, managing the first team for 28 games in the back half of last season. All told though, he doesn't have much first team managerial experience. 

Ahead of the new season, there's a lot of unknown and too much change to resist Fulham's price to go down.

It's worth noting, Palace are currently trading at 7.06/1 for relegation on the Exchange and Fulham are 6.05/1. These prices might be worth taking instead of the ones with the Sportsbook with a view to trade out during the season. 

It isn't uncommon to be along the right lines at the start of the campaign, only for a managerial change to scupper the bet. Tottenham, Nottingham Forest, Everton and Wolves all being examples from the last few seasons.  

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Now read Kevin Hatchard's Premier League Golden Boot preview here!

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