Today's Scottish referendum result marks the fifth time in a row that the Betfair Exchange has correctly predicted a significant political outcome, with the NO vote confirming what the Exchange had been pointing to for several months...
"In the end, the money spoke tellingly again, the significant support was all behind NO in the run up to the event and that, rather than opinion polls, is usually a certain indicator.”
The Betfair markets had consistently called the NO vote as around an 80% chance to win, with the YES campaign around a 20%, despite many opinion polls suggesting the race was neck and neck in the run up to the vote.
Our Exchange has a formidable record of calling political results correctly, and earlier in the week the Sportsbook even paid out early on NO to reflect our confidence that the referendum would be no exception.
The final week saw the NO vote continue to come in to odds as short as [1.28], and by Thursday morning it was down to [1.2]. The YES vote had conversely drifted out as far as [6.0] in early morning trading, the equivalent of a 17% chance to win.
This remained the case into the final evening; even as political pundits continued to call a very close result, the Exchange's main market was pointing to a clear win for the NO campaign.
This was backed up by the YouGov poll at around 22:30 which sent YES odds out to around [15.0] and the first declaration in Clackmanshire which sent it to [50.0], with NO at the minimum odds of [1.01], the equivalent of a near-certainty.
A Betfair spokesperson said: "Referendums are rare but we were hopeful that the Exchange would prove as accurate as it has been at several recent elections.
"In the end, the money spoke tellingly again, the significant support was all behind NO in the run up to the event and that, rather than opinion polls, is usually a certain indicator."
The referendum has altered the political landscape of the 307-year-old union and questions will surely now be asked about the impact it will have on senior party leaders and future election prospects.
The UK General Election Market on the Exchange has already gained momentum amidst the drama of Scotland's decision with another 'No Overall Majority' leading the way at [2.36], closely followed by Labour, available to back at [2.82]. The Conservatives are trading at [4.3].
The Betting.Betfair political columnists will be covering all the news and odds movements as the General Election approaches, be sure to bookmark the politics blog.