The Hundred Tips: Take a chance on 7/1 top-bat pick as Birmingham Phoenix take on Trent Rockets

Birmingham Phoenix v Trent Rockets The Hundred Tips

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Friday 24 July, 17:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Birmingham Phoenix have suffered a major blow to their title hopes, losing Jacob Bethell for the season to a knee injury. They were already light on batters but it could provide a betting opportunity.

With no obvious like-for-like replacement, Rehan Ahmed could be asked to bat up the order. Rehan has done that before in this competition and his gung-ho attitude and hitting ability would make him a fair option at No 3. He is, of course, unlikely to provide the big, match-turning knocks that Bethell is capable of but there is nowt wrong with his strike rate or boundary percentage. Sportsbook rate Rehan at 9/25.50 for top bat so they clearly expect him to move up.

With Bethell absent, South African Donovan Ferreira may also bat a spot higher. The 7/18.00 could well be a play. He has a win rate more in line with a 4/15.00 chance in this competition.

Rockets are taken to have a good season and the odds are right that they are jollies for this one. Unlike Phoenix, they have an embarrassment of riches with the bat. Former Phoenix Aneurin Donald is a firestarter but may not even make the XI with Ben Duckett, Finn Allen and Tom Banton the likely top three.

The Sportsbook runs line for the first-innings could be of interest at 149.5 for overs players. That is pretty much bang on the average for Edgbaston. But it is a batting ground and the slightly surprising low number could be due to external factors such as the overheads. It is a ground which can burn punters in that regards because although the track is flat, batters can be lulled into a false sense of security and they can spot the seam and swing too late.

For this fixture a day of blazing sun is expected. That should give us confidence. The recent heatwaves should also make for a nice, fast outfield.

London Spirit v Manchester Super Giants The Hundred Tips

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Thursday 23 July, 17:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Before any team had bowled a ball, it would not have been unreasonable to reckon that this contest would be worthy of this year's final. Both outfits are well balanced and should be highly competitive. It's a bit of a shame they meet each other in the first game of their season as one has to lose, preventing both from getting off to the sort of start their squad building deserves.

Spirit have impressed with their auction work. Luhan-dre Pretorius is busting 30 runs per innings in franchise this year, which is an elite number. Liam Livingstone, expected at no 3, has been in rare touch. The middle order of James Coles, David Willey and Jamie Overton is expectant. The bowling has all bases covered, particularly bamboozlement if they pair Adam Zampa and Mason Crane.

MSG do appear to be a little underrated on the outright, as discussed in the team guide. Where's the weakness in this possible XI? Buttler, Seifert, Markram, Klaasen, Du Plooy, Walter, T Moores, Dawson, Atkinson, Noor, Baker. That doesn't even include Josh Tongue.

On a potentially tricky Lord's surface, we could see an attritional affair. This is the second-lowest scoring ground in terms of total runs at 274. The first-innings average is 144, which is joint-second lowest. Sportsbook offer under 152.5 at 5/61.84. That is a decent chunk in our favour.

For players to follow, Livingstone is busting 30% on top-bat wins in the last two years. Jos Buttler for MSG has won four from eight. We expect him to return to the mean with a greater study sample but, of course, he wins at some stage. It might be wise to wait, though, for a flatter track. Livingstone is 7/24.50 and Buttler 3/14.00.

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