World Cup Tuesday Tipsheet: Back a close encounter between Les Bleus and La Roja in Texas

France vs Spain Tip - Back the game to remain level at the break

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Tuesday, 20:00
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France had an untroubled 90 minutes against Morocco, running out 2-0 winners against the Atlas Lions. Kylian Mbappe scored and provided an assist, making amends for his tame first-half penalty. Les Bleus have caught the eye throughout the tournament, and they even managed to keep their heads when faced with Paraguay's robust tactics.

Didier Deschamps will be keen for his tenure to end on a high, and he is likely to name an unchanged XI for Tuesday night's semi-final. The injury to Aurelien Tchouameni forced him to deploy the Kone-Rabiot double pivot, which has been effective, allowing Michael Olise to freely roam in the ten position.

With the second most potent attack in the tournament, France will be expected to be on the front foot, and they have plenty of width, which will be provided by both Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembele.

A lot of the talk has been about the firepower in their squad, and they were able to cut loose during the group stage of the tournament. It should be noted that a quarter of their goals came against a heavily rotated Norway XI, with a further six coming against Iraq and Senegal. They also took advantage of a creaking Swedish defence, yet the goals haven't been quite as forthcoming in the last two rounds and patience will be required once again in Arlington.

Spain have conceded just once so far this tournament, and although they needed a late Mikel Merino goal to secure their route to the final four, they allowed Belgium just 0.34 xG and just 11 touches in their box. Luis de la Fuente's men are unbeaten in 36 consecutive matches and they are the reigning European champions. They exert control on games by keeping possession and patiently building through the thirds. They have seen off Portugal and Belgium, and although they have required late goals in both of those games, it displays an admirable level of persistence.

The quarter-final games were far from spectacular, with just nine goals scored across the cumulative 360 minutes, and I wouldn't expect this fixture to become a basketball match at any stage. A repeat of the bonkers nine-goal Nations League encounter between these two teams feels highly unlikely.

Each of France's and Spain's last two knock-out games have been level at the break, and with so much at stake, neither side will want to take too many unnecessary risks in the first 45.

France v Spain Tip #2 - Low scoring draw plausible

Spain have been exceptionally close to requiring an additional 30 minutes, only for Merino to come off the bench and settle the contest in the dying embers twice. Portugal and Belgium are high-quality opponents, but this is a step up and it won't be easy. Against the Red Devils, Lamine Yamal was seeing plenty of the ball, but it felt like the Barcelona superstar was guilty of overthinking, and many of the attacks fizzled out as a result. A little more composure will be required here.

There has been a lot of focus on France's forward line, but they have been defensively secure, keeping three consecutive clean sheets in the knock-outs. They won't give much away either.

Backing the draw at 9/43.25 is perfectly serviceable, but this will increase to 13/53.60 if we add Under 3.5 Goals to the bet. This is highly unlikely to end 3-3.

France v Spain Tip #3 - Odds-against Olise appeals

Kylian Mbappe has averaged 3.30 shots on target per game this tournament, and the Real Madrid man is 8/111.73 to score or assist on Tuesday night. In the same market, it may be worth taking a bigger price of 5/42.25 on Michael Olise, who may be goalless so far, but he has chalked up five assists and will enjoy buzzing about whilst trying to find gaps in the Spanish defence. He can also hit them from range, and that may be the only way to find a way past Unai Simon at this tournament.

Jack's 7/18.00 France vs Spain Bet Builder

I've put together a 7/1 Bet Builder for the first of these semi-finals. If you bet £10 on this, you can take advantage of our Bet £10 Get £10 on ACCAs or Bet Builders offer, which is available throughout the World Cup.

I'm expecting this to be a fairly tactical affair, so I've dug deep into the bet builder options on the Betfair Sportsbook and picked out: under 3.5 goals, under 3.5 cards, 1+ corners for each team in each half, Maignon to make 3 or more saves and Kylian Mbappe to have 4 or more shots.

Notable World Cup winners on Betting.Betfair

- Mark Stinchcombe's stunning 38/139.00 Bet Builder in South Korea v Czechia
- Paul Higham's 9/25.50 Bet Builder in Mexico's MD1 defeat of South Africa
- A 6/17.00 winning ACCA for Mark on Sunday at the World Cup
- Andy Robson's 9/110.00 five-leg ACCA as Germany wallop Curacao
- An 11/26.50 winner for Jimmy The Punt as Jonathan David scores 2+ goals
- Jack Critchley delivered a 5/16.00 goalscorer treble on day 13
- Japan score but lose to give Paul Higham a 3/14.00 winner
- France and Norway help Andy Robson land a 9/25.50 ACCA
- A Lucas Bergvall fouls frenzy v France secures 9/25.50 winner for Jimmy
- Jack bagged four out of four winners in MD21 including an 11/26.50 ACCA
- Andy Robson secured a 4/15.00 last 16 ACCA winner
- A full house of winning tips and an 11/26.50 ACCA to boot for Mark
- Loads of Messi shots and fouls won mean a 4/15.00 winner for Paul
- Shootout joy as Kev Hatchard lands 4/15.00 winner in Australia v Egypt

Check out all of our World Cup 2026 betting tips