Newcastle v Liverpool: 4/1 Isak will be centre of attention on St James' Park return

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Sunday 23 August, 16:30
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A step into the unknown: Liverpool win looks short

A new era meets a new era. The unpredictability factor in this fixture is high and yet we have Liverpool, away from home, at odds-on.

I can totally see why the Reds have to be priced as the most likely winners but those taking the [19/20] will be lying to you if they say they are cocksure of Andoni Iraola's football being an instant success.

Iraola has arrived with a reputation for high-octane, vertical football, and that should make Liverpool an exciting watch. His Bournemouth sides embraced risk, pressed aggressively and attacked quickly after winning possession.

That said, maybe the pricing has more to do with Newcastle's pre-season turbulence as they begin their rebuild without Eddie Howe.

Toon rebuilding but don't ignore SJP factor

Matthias Jaissle's new side lost to Everton, Bayer Leverkusen and Strasbourg, while the manager has openly acknowledged that his team are still a work in progress after losing Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali and Anthony Gordon.

But St James' Park is St James' Park - when one of the big boys are in town and a bit of siege mentality is in the air, the Toon can be a different proposition to what perhaps the narrative implies.

Jaissle wants front-foot, aggressive, vertical football and that high press could make this awkward for a Liverpool team still learning Andoni Iraola's methods. There are bound to be bumps in the road when it comes to full buy-in from the Liverpool players. I'd rather be a player of Newcastle at [3/1] than Liverpool at odds-on.

Super Sunday Bet 1 - Overs the way to play it

Both managers are going to install high-intensity, pressing systems and neither defence is going to be anywhere near completely settled. Newcastle's pre-season results have exposed vulnerabilities whilst Liverpool have conceded momentum and goals in several friendlies.

Yes, putting faith in pre-season is a flaky system to utilise but when it comes to new manager and philosophies those matches tend to be a key source of information.

That is exactly what I want when I'm looking at the over 3.5 goals line with the Betfair Sportsbook at 23/202.15.

What happens when you put two teams together who are still learning new philosophies of wanting to press, play quickly and commit numbers forward? Mistakes.

There will be moments when Liverpool's new-look defence is exposed because it hasn't developed the understanding required to defend transitions perfectly. Virgil van Dijk has already acknowledged that Liverpool's defensive unit needs time to develop its chemistry in pre-season.

And when you have the attacking talent available to both managers, those mistakes should be punished. This could be chaos.

Read Ste Tudor's early look at this weekend's Premier League action

Super Sunday Bet 2 - Isak has a target on his back

There is no need to overcomplicate this one.

Alexander Isak is walking back into the lion's den.

A year ago, the Swedish striker detonated the situation with Newcastle by declaring that his relationship with the club "cannot continue", citing broken promises and a lack of trust. What followed was an acrimonious £130m move to Liverpool and a summer of fury on Tyneside.

Now he is coming back for the first time.

In a Liverpool shirt.

This is going to be spicy.

Newcastle supporters haven't forgotten. And while footballers are professionals who will insist the occasion isn't a factor, I don't believe for a second that Isak is going to get a quiet afternoon.

The interesting betting angle isn't whether he scores.

It's whether Newcastle kick him. And Betfair offer a "to be fouled" market, which is the perfect way to attack an Isak bet.

His historical fouls-won numbers are actually quite low, which explains why the bookmakers have priced this market so generously. We can get [10/11] on him being fouled once or more and [4/1] on two or more. Both are fantastic wagers as the market is pricing Isak's usual foul-winning profile. It isn't pricing the narrative.

Isak is going to have a target on his back.

Every time he gets the ball, the noise will go up. Every time he turns a Newcastle defender, there will be a reaction.

And if one of Newcastle's midfielders or defenders clatters into him?

St James' Park will erupt.

There is an incredibly easy way for a Newcastle player to get the crowd involved: put Isak on the floor.

I'm not suggesting some sort of premeditated assault. I'm talking about the natural aggression that comes with a fiercely competitive opening-day game, amplified by an atmosphere that is going to be absolutely hostile towards one particular player.

Newcastle will be desperate to stop him. That makes the price on the foul markets particularly appealing.

Like our Newcastle v Liverpool tips? You can back both Lewis' bets in a double that pays at [9/1]

Now read Lewis on why Chelsea & Spurs will finish above Man Utd