Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Back textbook Arsenal win, 9/2 Liverpool Bet Builder and 33/1 acca

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest Tip - Another draw for Glasner

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Saturday 12 September, 15:00 kick-off

Villa have won six straight home games against Forest but perhaps Oliver Glasner can end that run as he's not lost in seven games against them.

Neither team has won yet and Villa haven't even scored in the Premier League - ranking 19th in xG with 2.6 and 18th for touches in the opposition box (45) showing they're not even getting into scoring positions. Their build-up play has also been pretty sluggish and that'll play into Forest's hands.

A nice win in Brugge was a boost and you'd think Unai Emery will piece it all together at Villa sooner or later, but Glasner is toughening up Forest, while only Andoni Iraola has more league draws than the Austrian (31) since he entered the Premier League. This has all the hallmarks of another.

Bournemouth v Brentford Tip - Cherries to strike first again

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Saturday 12 September, 15:00 kick-off

Two more sides who love a draw here - with Bournemouth (12) and Brentford (11) two of the top three draw specialists in the Premier League in 2026. The Cherries are the only side in the division to hold the half-time lead in all three games so far, but they've won none.

They're the first team in Premier League history to score first but fail to win their opening three games of the season, while they've lost more points from winning positions than anyone else since the start of last season. Even their fast starts are under threat as Brentford haven't conceded before the 79th minute in the league this term.

At home though I'll still take Bournemouth to strike first.

Chelsea v Hull Tip - Back 2/13.00 Palmer assist

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Saturday 12 September, 15:00 kick-off

Chelsea have been full of goals so far but surprise package Hull haven't conceded yet. They won't make this an open, flowing game and will make Xabi Alonso's men work for their openings. Only Newcastle have sat in a low block more than the Tigers, who've only allowed nine shots on target so far - by contrast Chelsea have conceded 21 but from the same number of goal attempts (45) as Hull.

The caveat here, of course, is that Hull have played Coventry and Villa, two of the three teams yet to score in the league, while Man Utd should've really scored in their opening day defeat. And given how Chelsea have played so far they look a huge step up in terms of attacking power.

Plus Chelsea haven't had more than 48% possession in a league game so far yet they've scored eight, so with likely a lot more of the ball against Hull they'll surely win this one. At 2/91.22 they're too short to back though so preference is for a Cole Palmer assist - he usually feasts on newly promoted teams (15 goal involvements in 15 games) and, with Hull no doubt swarming him, watch for Palmer to slip a ball off for a team-mate to score.

Crystal Palace v Ipswich Tip - Experience to count for Eagles

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Saturday 12 September, 15:00 kick-off

Palace got away with one at Fulham to end a nine-game winless run and they're now 4/51.80 for a home win over Ipswich, who have looked vulnerable at the back but have also shown decent attacking intent - so even as 11/43.75 underdogs they look to have a decent chance.

Ipswich have looked a bit open and naive so far and that first win for Palace boss Pierre Sage last week looks to have been a nice settler. The Eagles traditionally aren't great at home but I'll take them to be too savvy for Ipswich at this stage.

Liverpool v Fulham Tip - Back 9/25.50 Reds Bet Builder at Anfield

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Saturday 12 September, 15:00 kick-off

Fulham played well in both their 3-2 defeats against Chelsea and Palace, but their losing start has Alvaro Arbeloa under pressure as he returns to former club Liverpool - who are looking to end a run of three straight league draws at Anfield.

The Reds still look a bit open at the back but they're 4/91.44 favourites and should win this. At the price, though, they're best backed in a Bet Builder, adding in over 1.5 home cards which is a conservative mark given Liverpool have gone 3-4-3 this season, while Dominik Szoboszlai should hit the target after two goals and five shots on target already this season.

Tottenham v Everton Tip - Fouls & home win in 3/14.00 double

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Saturday 12 September, 17:30 kick-off
Live on Sky Sports

Surely Spurs will finally score a goal here against an Everton team they've beaten 12 times in the last 17 home meetings, losing just once. David Moyes' side are unbeaten so far but they've needed two stoppage time goals to grab draws and there's only so many times you can pull off that trick.

So I fancy Spurs to finally get some joy here as Everton's luck runs out, but we'll also add a couple of fouls by midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur as the Toffees will make it a fight in the engine room and he's given away at least two in every game so far.

Sunderland v Arsenal Tip - Another clean sheet for champions

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Saturday 12 September, 15:00 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports 1

From Naples to Sunderland for Arsenal but the result shouldn't be any different with the champions riding high once again. This should be a bit of an armwrestle with both defences sound - the Gunners have allowed the lowest xG this season and the Black Cats the fewest shots against.

There's a growing air of inevitability about the Gunners. They'll wait as long as they have to and even if Sunderland match them defensively they're not going to match them going forward. That quality will tell and, although it sounds a bit obvious, there's no reason not to back another clean sheet win for Arsenal.

Back Paul's best bets acca at 33/134.00

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