Friday and Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: Best bets in one place

• Mark O'Haire backs the Den draw

• Goals backed in Man Utd v Everton

• Grealish to strike as City march on

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Good Friday tips

Millwall v Luton: Back the 2/1 draw

Millwall 2.747/4 v Luton 3.1511/5, the Draw 3.02/1
12:30
Live on Sky Sports

Mark O'Haire says: "Millwall and Luton have crossed swords nine times in league action since the beginning of the 2007/08 campaign with head-to-head encounters seeing plenty of stalemates - six of those nine match-ups ended all-square with the Lions earning two triumphs (W2-D6-L1).

"Millwall have also suffered a solitary home reverse to the Hatters since 1999 (W5-D1-L1). Millwall 2.68 boast the division's sixth-best home points record (W10-D5-L4), although the Lions have been turned over twice at The Den in their most recent three outings.

"No second-tier side has earned more points than Luton 3.15 since Christmas (W11-D4-L2) with the Hatters picking up top honours in five of their last seven unbeaten encounters (W5-D2-L0)."

Stoke v Bristol City: Potters to pounce again

Stoke 1.865/6 v Bristol City 5.14/1, the Draw 3.711/4
15:00

Jack Critchlety says: "Stoke blitzed their way past Coventry last weekend and continue to end the season strongly. There is a little discrepancy in the xG numbers for this game, however, its impossible to argue that the Potters were anything other than dominant throughout the 90 minutes.

"Across the last three matches, Alex Neil's side have the best xG numbers in the division and they should be able to take advantage of an injury-hit Bristol City outfit on Friday afternoon.

"There is a 12 point between the hosts and the top six and they are highly unlikely to gatecrash the play-offs, yet despite having to settle for another season in the second tier, there are plenty of reasons to be positive in Staffordshire."

Grimsby v Hartlepool: Visitors climbing out of drop zone

Grimsby 1.875/6 v Hartlepool 4.77/2, the Draw 3.6553/20
15:00

Ian Lamont says: "A couple of weeks ago I marked out to myself that Hartlepool had half a chance of staying up, if they could continue their draw-strewn form and maybe turn one or two into wins. Such has been the poor form of those just above them, one victory after five straight draws has put the second bottom team in touching distance of safety.

"That's really putting the squeeze on the three teams above them. The side that Josh Askey inherited from Keith Curle in mid-February has only won consecutive games once this season, against fellow relegation battlers Crawley and Rochdale. No kidding!

"Both matches, as it happens, were away. A visit to Grimsby, after defeating Swindon at home, gives them a chance to back-to-back victories once more, not least because Paul Hurst admitted the Mariners' FA Cup run and subsequent fixture list has taken its toll."

Middlesbrough v Burnley: 17/1 Harwood-Bellis can fire

Boro 2.9215/8 v Burnley 2.77/4, the Draw 3.412/5
20:00
Live on Sky Sport

NTT20 Podcast says: "Burnley have scored the most goals from set-pieces since the turn of the year, which is no fluke given they have the 2nd highest xG per 90 from set-pieces in the Championship in that time frame.

"They are generally dominant from these situations, also boasting the lowest xG against. Middlesbrough, however, have the fourth worst xG against from set-pieces in that same time frame and conceded twice to a centre-back in Matty Pearson in the defeat to Huddersfield.

"With goals forecast here we might be able to land a big price Burnley centre-back anytime goalscorer, and Taylor Harwood-Bellis looks the best candidate at 16/1.

"He's only scored once this season, but had two shots from corners on his return from injury in the 0-0 draw with Sunderland and is due a goal soon, having amassed an xG of 1.5 from his 15 shots this season."

Saturday tips

Man Utd v Everton: Follow the twice before pattern

Man Utd 1.558/15 v Everton 7.12153/25, the Draw 4.57/2
12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Opta Stat: "Everton have scored in each of their last nine Premier League games against Man Utd. They've never scored in 10 consecutive league games

against the Red Devils, while it's also Man Utd's longest current run without a clean sheet against a Premier League opponent.

"However, Manchester United have won both of their meetings with Everton in all competitions this season, winning 2-1 in the Premier League and 3-1 in the FA Cup."

Dortmund v Union Berlin: Hosts desperate for ray of hope

Dortmund 1.645/8 v Union 6.25/1, the Draw 4.3100/30
14:30

Kevin Hatchard says: "Dortmud crumbled horribly in Der Klassiker, losing 4-2 at Bayern thanks to an error-strewn performance. That loss saw them knocked off top spot in the Bundesliga by Bayern, and then they gave an even worse performance in Wednesday's 2-0 DFB Pokal quarter-final defeat at RB Leipzig.

"Edin Terzic's men were second-best from the first whistle to the last, and didn't have a shot on target until stoppage time.

"However, the season is still salvageable. BVB are just two points behind Bayern in the title race with eight matchdays left, and I think they can return to winning ways with a statement victory against an Union Berlin team that is just two points behind them in the standings."

Wolves v Chelsea: Lampard to restart with win

Wolves 4.216/5 v Everton 2.0811/10, the Draw 3.55/2
15:00

Alex Keble says: "Frank Lampard's stunning return to Chelsea as interim manager makes sense. His previous tenure at the club was defined by maddeningly-open attacking football as Chelsea fanned out, expressed themselves with abandon, and then were left vulnerable to opposition counters.

"But with Graham Potter having laid down positional structure, and with the players bored of it, Lampard might be just what they need.

"Lampard's instruction to get creative might unshackle Chelsea enough to put together a few wins, particularly with the detailed tactical coaching still there from the years under Thomas Tuchel and Potter.

"Wolves are the perfect first opponents, because their move towards a slower form of possession football under Julen Lopetegui makes them vulnerable to vertical attacking football from a buoyant Chelsea."

Southampton v Ma City: Grealish key at 11/4 as City continue title challenge

Soton 14.013/1 v Man City 1.282/7, the Draw 6.611/2
17:30
Live on Sky Sports

Ben Steele says: "Since returning from the World Cup in Qatar Jack Grealish has been directly involved in eight league goals with last weekend's man of the match display against Liverpool showing him at his absolute best.

"Trent Alexander-Arnold was run ragged, with Grealish setting up City's equaliser and scoring their fourth to help keep the pressure on leaders Arsenal.

"With 10 league games left in their season City are 11/10 to win the title, but will know that playing before Arsenal do this weekend they have a chance to increase the pressure on their rivals with a win.

"Grealish will be looking to score or assist in consecutive games for the first time in his City career and, at 5/6 he's well backed. However, I'll be backing the England international to notch his fifth league goal at 11/4."

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