Middlesbrough v Burnley: 17/1 Harwood-Bellis can fire Burnley to Premier League promotion

• Middlesbrough's automatic promotion push on the rails

• Away side could expose Boro's frailty from set-pieces

• Burnley could be promoted with a win

• We tipped Burnley for the title in July - read here!

Boro Need Blades Bust

Middlesbrough's charge to chase down Sheffield United for the second Championship automatic promotion spot was dealt a huge blow last weekend when surprisingly losing to Neil Warnock's Huddersfield 4-2 having taken the lead, with Blades getting an all important win on the road at Norwich.

That means there is now a six-point gap between the two sides, with Paul Heckingbottom's men also boasting a game in hand.

With Wigan travelling to Bramall Lane earlier in the day, the result there could well have a bearing on this game, with Boro either reinvigorated by their rivals dropping points or having to face up to the disappointment of any automatic promotion bid being all but over if they get the expected home win.

Kompany's Clarets Could Be Promoted

If Luton drop points at Millwall in their 3pm kick-off, a win here would see Burnley's promotion secured at The Riverside. Easter promotions are not common in the EFL and is a signifier of just how far clear Burnley have been of their rivals over the course of the season.

They weren't at their best in the 0-0 draw last weekend at home to Sunderland, with Tony Mowbray's side going closest to scoring when Amad Diallo's deflected effort hit the bar and the Black Cats had a goal chalked off late on, but it all looks pretty academic given how far clear Burnley are.

Their promotion is just a matter of time, and that time could well be Good Friday.

Unstoppable Forss meets Immovable Clarets

Marcus Forss has reached 10 league goals for Middlesbrough this season, just one shy of his best return in a single Football League campaign (11 with AFC Wimbledon in 2019-20), with both him and Chuba Akpom (25 goals) the first pair to reach double figures in a season since 2019-20 (Ashley Fletcher and Britt Assombalonga both 11).

Both sides are dominant in the surroundings that they've find themselves in here, with Boro having won eight of their previous nine league games at the Riverside Stadium (D1), scoring 3+ goals in five of those games, including their most recent one against Preston (4-0).

Burnley, though - since a 5-2 defeat to Sheffield United in November - have won six of their last eight away league games (D2), conceding only three goals during that run.

Taylor made for set-piece strugglers

Burnley have scored the most goals from set-pieces since the turn of the year, which is no fluke given they have the 2nd highest xG per 90 from set-pieces in the Championship in that time frame.

They are generally dominant from these situations, also boasting the lowest xG against. Middlesbrough, however, have the fourth worst xG against from set-pieces in that same time frame and conceded twice to a centre-back in Matty Pearson in the defeat to Huddersfield.

With goals forecast here we might be able to land a big price Burnley centre-back anytime goalscorer, and Taylor Harwood-Bellis looks the best candidate at 16/1.

He's only scored once this season, but had two shots from corners on his return from injury in the 0-0 draw with Sunderland and is due a goal soon, having amassed an xG of 1.5 from his 15 shots this season.