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Mariners can be forgiven fatigue
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Northampton in no mood for playoffs
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Orient could snatch a draw
Visitors so close to climbing out of drop zone
Grimsby Town 1.910/11 v Hartlepool 5.24/1; the draw 3.814/5
A couple of weeks ago I marked out to myself that Hartlepool had half a chance of staying up, if they could continue their draw-strewn form and maybe turn one or two into wins.
Such has been the poor form of those just above them, one victory after five straight draws has put the second bottom team in touching distance of safety.
That's really putting the squeeze on the three teams above them. The side that Josh Askey inherited from Keith Curle in mid-February has only won consecutive games once this season, against fellow relegation battlers Crawley and Rochdale. No kidding!
Both matches, as it happens, were away. A visit to Grimsby, after defeating Swindon at home, gives them a chance to back-to-back victories once more, not least because Paul Hurst admitted the Mariners' FA Cup run and subsequent fixture list has taken its toll.
Bradford came back at them on Saturday lunchtime, as Grimsby tired. Hartlepool should put "battling" in front of their name. They might be drawing lots, but they are not used to losing.
Striker Connor Jennings, one of several January recruits (Stockport), has scored all his three goals after the 80th minute. Dan Kemp (on loan from MK Dons) has netted four.
Teams with whom they have drawn include not just fellow draw specialists Walsall but Northampton, Bradford and Leyton Orient, who are all vying for promotion.
Signs of Grimsby's fatigue include letting that 2-1 lead at Bradford slip into defeat, plus only scoring one goal in each of five of the previous seven games.
Gavan Holohan, Harry Clifton and co have given us such thrills in the FA Cup, they can be forgiven for slipping into four draws in eight, like boxers interlocking each others' arms, unable to land further punches towards the end of fights.
While there seems every possibility of a draw, Hartlepool simply need the points more badly and will have stronger desire. Opta add in that Grimsby have won just one of their last eight Good Friday fixtures.
Go big or go home? I'm chancing the big price and hoping Pools can pull off only a fourth away win of the campaign.
Cobblers need to keep winning
Newport County 2.68/5 v Northampton 3.39/4; the draw 3.211/5
Talking of desire, the rather large looking price on Northampton to win at Newport is possibly based on their string of injuries, rather than any sort of form.
Publicly, the Cobblers might not be using last season's jaw-dropping final day slip from third to fourth (Bristol Rovers won 7-0 to overtake them) as motivation.
But nobody present then wants to drop into the playoffs after another season in which they have been in the top three more or less consistently.
Despite missing 10 players - and Jack Sowerby being substituted through injury - the Cobblers managed a draw against Stevenage, more poignantly maintaining their position at the top of the six-game form table.
They are proving they have strength in depth - and while Sam Hoskins and Mitch Pinnock remain in dangerous tandem up front they have every chance of winning any match.
Louis Appere was the scorer last time out, as well as for the win at home to Crewe, emphasising that any opposing defence has a lot to handle.
Newport, winless in five against Northampton point out Opta, have drawn four of the most recent six games, losing once - and did keep a clean sheet last time out.
However they also failed to score against lowly Colchester and sit in the bottom third, languishing closer to the drop zone than the playoffs, points wise.
Aaron Wildig, who scored his first goal of the campaign in the win at Tranmere, has had better seasons. Harry Charsley might have been reunited with his old manager, Graham Coughlan, after signing from Port Vale in January. But a hoped-for playoff push never materialised. The visitors' desire should conquer.
Stockport could be held to rare away draw
Sutton United 3.412/5 v Stockport 2.68/5; the draw 3.211/5
A bare reading of these teams' form shows four draws each in their past six games: however, anyone automatically expecting a draw at Gander Green Lane might like to note that drawing away is something that Stockport just don't seem to do.
Their last was six away games ago, 1-1 at Crewe and they have two on their travels all season.
That being said, Dave Challinor's men might be grateful for a point in south London, given that Matt Gray's men have the third best home record in League Two, including 11 wins.
Opta point out the U's have lost just one of their past 10 at home, last time out against Grimsby.
A run of 19 points from 10 games has continued Stockport's solid run to make them firm play-off contenders.
Sutton have 17 points in the same period. With a trip to Bradford beckoning on Monday, they can ill afford to let the six point gap to seventh place widen any further.
Midfielder Alistair Smith ended a run of three games without the U's scoring by giving them the lead at Walsall - where only a late strike stopped them winning last Saturday.
David Ajiobye and Craig Eastmond were among others who had chances to score. Before drawing three blanks in recent weeks, Coby Rowe and Lee Angol seemed on a roll. The visitors, strangely, have also found goals hard to come by recently, Paddy Madden hitting a post instead of putting the Hatters 2-0 up at Stockport last time out.
Keeper Ben Hinchcliffe was barely involved - and the visitors have four clean sheets from six. They have only scored one goal at a time though in each of their last four, after three blanks of their own. A low-scoring draw could well transpire.
Ammies might be pegged back by leaders
Salford City 2.486/4 v Leyton Orient 3.412/5; the draw 3.39/4
Richie Wellens must be slightly frustrated that leaders Leyton Orient have failed to hold on to a lead a few times in their recent 10-game unbeaten run.
They could be pretty much wrapping up promotion this weekend, if it were not for letting a 2-0 lead slip at Colchester, conceding after scoring against Hartlepool and Swindon, all of those culminating in draws.
Missing Charlie Kelman (suspension) for the trip to Salford is unfortunate. George Moncur and Ruel Sotiriou will just have to be on top form up front, while Omar Beckles sticks to his role at the back rather than roam up for the odd goal from a set piece.
The O's - unbeaten in four away, three of them draws - will certainly have to be on their toes against a side who are full of confidence and potentially goals.
Opta point out that Salford have won six of their eight home games in 2023, twice as many as earlier in the season. The free-scoring spirits in Neil Wood's side had their wings clipped by only managing one against Stockport, drawing 1-1.
Callum Hendry notched his eight of the season, and four in five games, but plenty of colleagues have been in on the act as the Ammies have racked up 19 goals in seven matches. They have failed to score just once in 21 games.
Stephen Mallan has found some hot form since coming into the side recently, with three goals in the past four matches, while Luke Bolton and Matt Lund have also taken their chances. The visitors are vulnerable to a Salford surge as the hosts try to maintain a top seven spot - but the O's could hold on for a draw.