Millwall v Luton: Back the 2/1 draw at The Den

• Millwall have lost once at home to the top-17

• No side has earned more points than Luton since Christmas

• 6 of the last 9 meetings have ended all-square

Millwall earn positive point

Millwall manager Gary Rowett was pleased to pick up a point away at West Brom last weekend as the Lions moved up to fifth in the Championship.

The Bermondsey boys were lucky to hold on in the first half, but their second half performance was much improved and they may have felt unfortunate not to have left with all three points.

However, with Blackburn, Norwich and Coventry all losing, the draw felt even more positive given that Millwall leapfrogged the former in the second-tier standings and extended their lead on seventh place to four points.

Speaking post-match, Rowett said: "We were aware of the size of the task coming here. We knew that if were going to get anything out of the game, we'd have to play well. It was a really good performance. I can't really remember any saves that Longy [George Long] has had to make. I felt we looked fairly comfortable; we definitely had the better chances."

Millwall made just one change from their 1-0 defeat to Huddersfield at The Den before the international break.

Andreas Voglsammer drops to the bench for Duncan Watmore, who made his first start since 21^st February. The Lions are hoping to have Tyler Burey, Mason Bennett and Billy Mitchell back in the squad for the Easter card.

Luton impress in derby day victory

Luton head coach Rob Edwards declared he was left feeling emotional during the closing stages of his side's impressive 2-0 victory over fierce rivals Watford at Kenilworth Road last Saturday.

With Town leading 1-0 through Gabe Osho's close range finish in the first half, the richly-deserved result was confirmed in stoppage-time through Allan Campbell.

Edwards said: "The players were outstanding, every single one of them, to the point where it made me emotional at the end. We're in a really good position, we're going to keep our foot down and see where it takes us. The lads know how to win games and we're going to continue to do that - there are seven huge games to go. The club is on a real high."

Before the game, Luton chief sprung a major surprise with midfielder Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu making a quicker than expected recovery from a knee injury that had looked like ending his season, to replace Luke Berry in the starting line-up.

Jordan Clark was the only notable absentee as Edwards had an almost fully fit squad to select from.

The result keeps Town in fourth, just six points adrift of second-placed Sheffield United, and level on points with third-placed Middlesbrough with Edwards adding, "There's no guarantees we're going do anything and I don't want to start talking like something is going to happen - but we all feel something could. We want to be in the mix."

Difficult to split well-matched sides

Millwall and Luton have crossed swords nine times in league action since the beginning of the 2007/08 campaign with head-to-head encounters seeing plenty of stalemates - six of those nine match-ups ended all-square with the Lions earning two triumphs (W2-D6-L1).

Millwall have also suffered a solitary home reverse to the Hatters since 1999 (W5-D1-L1).

Millwall 2.6813/8 boast the division's sixth-best home points record (W10-D5-L4), although the Lions have been turned over twice at The Den in their most recent three outings.

Gary Rowett's group have been beaten only five times in 22 Championship contests across all venues and have also posted an impressive W8-D5-L1 when welcoming any side from the current top-17.

No second-tier side has earned more points than Luton 3.1511/5 since Christmas (W11-D4-L2) with the Hatters picking up top honours in five of their last seven unbeaten encounters (W5-D2-L0).

Nevertheless, Town have been involved in plenty of draws when facing-off against top-half sides - the visitors have returned W5-D9-L5 when meeting the league's elite.

Draw likely in a tight encounter

Neither Millwall nor Luton have been regularly involved in high-scoring Championship shootouts.

The league itself is averaging only 2.42 goals per-game with 56% of fixtures featuring fewer than three goals, and both Millwall and Luton have been key contributors to that market - 51/79 (65%) of combined clashes have gone Under 2.5 Goals [9/20].

The market is already anticipating a tight and competitive contest with the goal expectancy coming in at just 2.10, hence the short odds on Under 2.5 Goals.

However, low-goal games do tend to increase the likelihood of the Draw 3.002/1 and the stalemate holds plenty of appeal at the price, considering the magnitude of the match and two teams' style.

The pair played out a 2-2 draw at Kenilworth Road at the end of February, and with six of their previous nine meetings also ending all-square, I'm happy to have a play on a repeat ahead of Good Friday's game.