Serie A Betting: Goals galore, Rome Derby drama and Napoli to break Juventus

Fiorentina striker Luis Muriel scores against Atalanta in the Coppa Italia semi-final
Expect more goals when Luis Muriel’s Fiorentina meet Atalanta again

Dave Farrar predicts Atalanta and Fiorentina will provide more madness after their 3-3 midweek Coppa tie, Roma to have Capital bragging rights and Juve to suffer their first Serie A defeat of the season...

“It’s a bumper weekend in Serie A, and Saturday night kicks us off with a Rome derby, Atalanta and Fiorentina are fresh off a six-goal midweek thriller and Napoli feel they can stop Juventus.”

Expect repeat of Coppa thriller

Atalanta v Fiorentina
Sunday, 17:00
Live on Premier 1 and Betfair Live Video

If two teams have played out a midweek six-goal thriller, is it too obvious to recommend a bet on more goals? Probably, but that still seems to be the most sensible play as Atalanta and Fiorentina clash again, this time in Bergamo.

The truth is that goals were always on the cards in Florence in the Coppa Italia semi-final, and after failing (a boost for this column) against Torino last week, Atalanta look to have rediscovered their goal-scoring form in that 3-3 draw.

That bodes well for the rest of their season, but their defensive issues were once again highlighted, and with Fiorentina's last three matches producing 17 goals, it's hard to resist backing the Over 3.5 here at what is still a useful price.

Sometimes styles combine, as do attitudes, and that seems to be the case with these two teams. It was 2-0 to Fiorentina in the League earlier in the season, but Stefano Pioli's team made themselves harder to play against then, and this new look Viola could be involved in yet another thriller as they head to the highest scorers in Serie A.

All roads lead to Roma

Lazio v Roma
Saturday, 19:30
Live on FreeSports and Betfair Live Video

It's a bumper weekend in Serie A, and Saturday night kicks us off with a Rome derby between a Lazio side who look to be fading and a Roma team who are still realistically in the conversation for a third placed finish.

Roma have now won their last four in all competitions, and while they've been a relatively easy run of games, that's still impressively momentum building, and they also will feel that they have the measure of Lazio. They brushed them aside 3-1 earlier in the season, and they're now playing better than they were then.

Lazio stopped a run of three consecutive defeats when they drew with Milan in midweek in the Coppa Italia, but they still look a little tired and short of inspiration: short of goals too, as they now have 26 fewer at this point than they did in the last campaign. With Ciro Immobile failing to score in his last four, he needs to find form, and fast.

While these games can level things out, Roma have shown in recent seasons that they come close to owning this fixture. That tide will eventually change, but Lazio have now won only one of the last twelve derbies in Serie A, and Roma have won seven of those. That list will get longer on Saturday night, and Roma are well priced too.

Juve run to end in Naples

Napoli v Juventus
Sunday, 19:30
Live on Premier 1 and Betfair Live Video

There's a gathering momentum behind Napoli, and while they'll be the first to admit that the Europa League remains their only realistic chance of silverware this season, I still expect them to close the gap in Serie A between them and Juventus, and that should start with a win this Sunday night, in a game that won't resonate across the country quite as it has done in recent seasons.

Napoli may have won only one of their last six Serie A matches against Juventus, with that inferiority complex possibly costing them a couple of title wins, but they are playing quite brilliantly at the moment, and now that they have kept five consecutive clean sheets, they have a defensive strength to back up their attacking flair.

Napoli were as good as I've seen them for a year in their 4-0 win at Parma last week, and with Juventus looking vulnerable, I fancy Carlo Ancelotti's team strongly for the win.

Of course Juve mustn't be written off, and of course they look big at 3.259/4, but Atletico Madrid exposed them last week, and they were fortunate against Bologna last weekend. Napoli will feel that they can stop Cristiano Ronaldo now that they are full of confidence and I tend to agree.

With a Napoli win, the gap at the top will still be ten points, and so a defeat wouldn't be a seismic blow to Juve, but it would put an added spring in the step of Ancelotti's team, as they build towards European glory, and land as many blows on Juventus as they can.

2018-19 P/L

Staked: 75 points
Returned: 79.64 points
P/L: +4.64 points

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