Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: Best bets for FA Cup final, Scottish Premiership and more

Listen to Football...Only Bettor FA Cup final preview

FA Cup final tips and predictions

15:00 - Man City v Chelsea: Back Pep's men to win tight Wembley contest

Kevin Hatchard: Chelsea haven't beaten City since the 2021 Champions League final, and since then City have won 10 of the clubs' 13 competitive meetings, with three draws. This season alone, City have won 3-0 at Stamford Bridge and drawn 1-1 at the Etihad.

I'm happy to back City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at a tempting 6/4 on the Betfair Sportsbook. As my Football Only Bettor colleague Lewis Jones always points out, games at Wembley are almost uniformly devoid of goals. In the last 54 domestic and European games played at Wembley, the goal average for the first 90 minutes is under two goals, and 92% of those 54 games have seen an Under 3.5 Goals bet land.

With this bet we get City wins of 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1 in our portfolio, and that's an attractive range.

Chelsea v Man City - Alan Shearer's prediction

Alan Shearer: It is really interesting that City have lost the last two finals as favourites. I did the co-comms last year for that game when Palace beat them. Chelsea showed slight improvement last week against Liverpool despite going 1-0 down.

I just think because of the mood that City are in, the belief and the confidence, they'll edge it. I know that City still give you chances, even watching the game against Crystal Palace, they missed two or three really good chances. I think there'll be a lot of goals in this, but I think Man City will edge it just.

Chelsea v Man City: Back 16/1 player prop Bet Builder

Stephen Tudor: Marc Guehi is well priced to be fouled 2+ times at Wembley. The City defender is particularly canny at letting the ball run past him, so he is facing his own goal, then buying a cheap free-kick. He successfully did this twice vs Chelsea last month and has drawn two fouls per 90 across his last six outings.

Moises Caicedo meanwhile is fancied to pick up a booking this weekend, especially as the fire has returned to his belly post-Liam Rosenior's sacking. The Ecuadorian has committed eight fouls combined in his last two appearances, and been yellow carded in each of his last three.

Lastly, Rayan Cherki could well be a game-changer once again, the French schemer was rested midweek yet still carved out a clever assist from a 11 minute cameo. The 22-year-old provided two assists last time out vs Chelsea while completing 41 passes in the opposition half.

Chelsea v Man City: Opta stats point to City clean sheet

Opta Stat: Chelsea's last eight matches at Wembley have produced just seven goals in total (4 goals, 3 conceded) while they have failed to score in each of their last four finals at the national stadium since a fifth minute Christian Pulisic goal against Arsenal in the 2020 FA Cup final.

Scottish Premiership tips and predictions

12:30 - Celtic v Hearts: Back late goals in title showdown

Lewis Jones: Goals look on the menu based on the market projections with the over 2.5 goals 40/85 on the Betfair Sportsbook with the line almost being set at over 3.5 goals which is on offer at 5/4.

Those lines look tight enough to me but there is a market which has potential when it comes to goal output.

The final weeks of a campaign are one of my favourite periods for targeting second-half goals, specifically backing there to be more goals scored after the break than before it. You can get Evens on the second half producing more goals than the first with the Betfair Sportsbook.

It's one of those angles that doesn't always look sexy on paper but the psychology of football at this stage of the season creates the perfect storm for late chaos where tactical discipline disappears when games become stretched.

European Football tips and predictions

14:30 Bundesliga - Eintracht Frankfurt v Stuttgart - Demirovic to lead the way

Kevin Hatchard: The race for Champions League football is going down to the wire, after Stuttgart blew away Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 last week and Hoffenheim edged out ten-man Werder Bremen 1-0. Southern rivals Stuttgart and Hoffenheim are fourth and fifth respectively, separated by goal difference. Bayer Leverkusen are sixth, and need both to lose so that they can sneak through with a win over Hamburg.

Stuttgart conceded a goal in the first minute at home to Leverkusen, but then proceeded to batter their opponents relentlessly. Ermedin Demirovic was a relentless presence in attack - he scored a swift leveller, won the penalty that made it 2-1, had another goal ruled out for a marginal offside and ended up with six goal attempts.

Demirovic has now scored in his last three Bundesliga matches, and I'll back him to find the net again here at 2.24 on the Exchange. He'll face an Eintracht Frankfurt team that is still pushing for European qualification by nailing down seventh spot, but they are a point behind Freiburg and only ahead of Augsburg on goal difference.

Now read this weekend's Premier League Opta stats and best bets