FA Cup Final Man City v Chelsea Tips: Back Pep's men to win tight Wembley contest

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Saturday 16 May, 15:00
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Chelsea aiming to rescue torrid campaign

Football is littered with examples of owners and managers who thought they'd cracked the code and found a route to success that everyone else had missed. In the Clearlake/Boehly era, Chelsea have tried to grow a young squad together, only for an obsession with player trading to undermine the growth of many of those players.

Players have been given extraordinarily long contracts, but as the club are finding with the likes of Enzo Fernandez fluttering his eyelashes at Real Madrid, those deals aren't as iron-clad as they believed. A refusal to buy proven leaders has been costly (the failure to buy Milan and France keeper Mike Maignan in the summer was an egregious example), and a revolving door when it comes to the coaching department has added to a sense of instability and confusion.

This FA Cup final is a chance for Chelsea to inject much-needed positivity, and if caretaker coach Calum McFarlane becomes an FA Cup-winning manager just six years after coaching at non-league Whyteleafe, it will be an incredible story. For all the missteps, the injuries and the growing divide between owners and fans, Chelsea could win a third trophy in just over a year, having delivered the Club World Cup and the Conference League under Enzo Maresca.

However, the form is a big concern. Chelsea lost five in a row without scoring in the Premier League before they drew 1-1 at an obliging Liverpool, and the Blues' only wins in the last 11 games have been in the FA Cup against Port Vale and Leeds United.

Goalkeeper Robert Sanchez is once again available after a head injury, while wingers Alejandro Garnacho and Pedro Neto have returned to training. Levi Colwill's season has been destroyed by injury, but his return against Liverpool was welcome, and he could start here. Reece James also came back at Anfield after a two-month absence.

Pep maintaining balancing act as Wembley nears

Chasing a domestic treble involves plenty of pitfalls, and Manchester City have managed to at least stay in the mix for the Premier League title while looking to add the FA Cup to the League Cup they have already secured.

Their 3-0 wins over Brentford and Crystal Palace have kept City two points behind Arsenal with two games left, and City surely have to win both to have any chance of winning the league.

City boss Pep Guardiola admits that leaving out a host of regular starters for the Palace game in midweek was a risk, with Rayan Cherki, Jeremy Doku and Erling Haaland all omitted from his XI and Nico O'Reilly rested entirely. It was a good time for Phil Foden to make a long-awaited return to form, as the England hopeful teed up first-half goals for Antoine Semenyo and Omar Marmoush.

Although a chaotic 3-3 draw at Everton recently might cost his team the league, there's no doubt that Guardiola has got his squad peaking at the right time. City have won eight of their last nine competitive games, and they haven't lost a match since the Champions League defeat to Real Madrid in mid-March. They haven't lost to a domestic opponent since a derby defeat at Manchester United in January.

Rayan Cherki has blossomed in his first City season, delivering 16 goal involvements in the Premier League alone. Belgian wing wizard Jeremy Doku finally appears to be finding consistency to go with his sparkling talent - the 23-year-old has netted five goals across his last seven appearances.

Guardiola is likely to bring O'Reilly, Doku and Cherki back into his starting XI, while cup keeper James Trafford is expected to start ahead of Gigio Donnarumma.

City to win tight contest

Chelsea haven't beaten City since the 2021 Champions League final, and since then City have won 10 of the clubs' 13 competitive meetings, with three draws. This season alone, City have won 3-0 at Stamford Bridge and drawn 1-1 at the Etihad.

I'm happy to back City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at a tempting 6/42.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook. As my Football Only Bettor colleague Lewis Jones always points out, games at Wembley are almost uniformly devoid of goals. In the last 54 domestic and European games played at Wembley, the goal average for the first 90 minutes is under two goals, and 92% of those 54 games have seen an Under 3.5 Goals bet land.

With this bet we get City wins of 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1 in our portfolio, and that's an attractive range.

City showmen to show off

Cherki is a big-game player, and I expect him to find plenty of spaces to do damage against a Chelsea team that is in poor form. The French international has had a shot on target in six of his last nine starts, and his price of 4/61.67 to hit the target here makes him a good starting point for a Bet Builder.

I'll next go for City to score first. Pep Guardiola's side have an incredible record in first halves in the Premier League this season, scoring 40 goals before the break and conceding just nine. If the Premier League table was based on first halves, City would have won the title with weeks to spare. I expect City to start strongly and score first.

The in-form Doku is worth backing to be fouled at least twice. He draws contact incredibly well - across his last four starts he has drawn a mind-boggling 18 fouls.

Finally let's go for Enzo Fernandez to have a shot on target. The Chelsea midfielder is a big-game player - he scored a late equaliser at the Etihad this season and netted the only goal of the game in the semi-final against Leeds.

The World Cup winner has had at least one shot on target in 13 of his last 18 Chelsea starts, and I wouldn't put you off backing this as a single at evens.

That fourfold on the Bet Builder comes out at between 9/25.50 and 5/16.00.

Now read Kevin's European football tips here