FA Cup Final Tips: City backed plus a 16/1 player prop Bet Builder

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Without leaning too much into romanticism it's fair to say that the FA Cup final is a unique fixture with unique traits.

Here's one for you straight off the bat. Defenders hardly ever score in the marquee event. There is no earthly reason why this is so, but it's true, nonetheless. The last centre-back or full-back to score in a final was Per Mertesacker back in 2015.

In recent times there has hardly been an abundance of goals either and, if we're being honest about it, the last out-and-out thriller was Liverpool's 3-3 draw with West Ham two decades ago. Since that outlier there has been 2.3 goals per final and that includes four lots of extra-time thrown in.

At least most have been close. Only two of the last 20 finals have been won by more than a single-goal margin of victory. Exactly half of them have been won to nil. Man City to win in a similar fashion offers up 21/103.10

Early lead for City fancied

If goals have been in relatively short supply, then under 2.5 in regular time at [23/20] is a shout, even if that potentially downplays Chelsea's woeful defence, who shipped in three against City just last month. In the Premier League, the Blues are enduring their longest run without a clean sheet for 35 years.

Where we're on firmer ground perhaps is focusing on the timing of the goals, not the quantity.

Since 2005, 34% of FA Cup final goals have been converted inside the opening half an hour and that plays right into City's hands given their propensity to score early this term. In 45.6% of their commitments this season they have scored at least once inside 30 minutes.

Let's not forget either that in their last three league outings, Chelsea have conceded inside six minutes.

Red card shout

The last 20 FA Cup finals have produced a perfectly ordinary number of yellow cards (3.7 per 90, or 4.1 if extra-times are included) and the same goes for dismissals (one every four games).

What is pertinent, however, is that the last two players to depart early in a final were both Chelsea players while the London club have received a hefty seven red cards in the league alone this season. That's three more than any other club.

It's also pertinent that the last five reds in a final have all been brandished beyond half-time.

City on target six times over

If there has been a conservative number of goals since 2005, the same thankfully can't be said of shots on target. 9.8 SOT per final is a thoroughly respectable return and disproves the long-standing perception that teams take a safety-first approach at Wembley.

City have more than done their bit in their previous six finals, in bumping up this average, registering 10.1 SOT per 90. Chelsea have somewhat let the side down in their eight finals, taking on just 4.1 per 90.

It's a similar tale this season in the Premier League, with City posting 39 more SOT than their southern counterparts.

When these sides met at the Bridge last month, Pep Guardiola's men racked up eight.

High volume of corners

A quick one worthy of consideration concerns corners and a possible high volume of them this Saturday.

The last two decades of FA Cup finals have produced 10.4 corners per game while a hefty 16 were awarded at the Bridge last month.

With Doku and Semenyo on display, City have to be fancied to come out on top in this regard, and City most corners at 4/91.44 is a decent add to a cup final builder.

16/1 Player Prop Bet Builder

Marc Guehi is well priced to be fouled 2+ times at Wembley. The City defender is particularly canny at letting the ball run past him, so he is facing his own goal, then buying a cheap free-kick. He successfully did this twice vs Chelsea last month and has drawn two fouls per 90 across his last six outings.

Moises Caicedo meanwhile is fancied to pick up a booking this weekend, especially as the fire has returned to his belly post-Liam Rosenior's sacking. The Ecuadorian has committed eight fouls combined in his last two appearances, and been yellow carded in each of his last three.

Lastly, Rayan Cherki could well be a game-changer once again, the French schemer was rested midweek yet still carved out a clever assist from a 11 minute cameo. The 22-year-old provided two assists last time out vs Chelsea while completing 41 passes in the opposition half.

Now read about Man City's latest title odds after beating Palace here.