Manchester United v Manchester City: 9/4 on Red Devils too big to ignore in derby

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Sunday 13 September, 16:30
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Bet 1: Man Utd v Man City Match Odds - Carrick factor underrated by market

Manchester United have a boss in Michael Carrick who has made a habit of beating the big boys, yet they can still be backed at 9/43.25 to win the Manchester derby. That's a price that appeals.

Manchester City arrive at Old Trafford with a perfect three-from-three Premier League record and are 21/202.05 favourites, with the draw available at 29/103.90.

On the face of it, that pricing is understandable. City are flying while United's start has been less convincing.

But this is where I think the market may be missing something.

Carrick has already shown a remarkable knack for getting his Manchester United side to produce against the strongest opposition. In eight matches against the traditional 'big six' plus Aston Villa, Carrick has won seven and drawn the other.

United haven't been nicking 1-0 wins and hanging on for dear life either in those spots. They have scored at an average of 2.25 goals per 90 minutes across those eight matches.

You can't ignore that set of data.

There is clearly something about the way Carrick sets his team up for the bigger occasions that works. United have been more aggressive, more dangerous and more capable of going toe-to-toe with elite opposition than the general perception of this team perhaps allows.

There is also a longer-term trend worth throwing into the equation. Looking at City's away record in their last 13 Premier League games against sides who went on to qualify for Europe that season, they have won just twice.

That's a return that should make anyone rushing to take 21/202.05 about City pause for thought. The visitors deserve respect, of course. This is still a City squad packed with match-winners.

City may well prove too good, but the price on United means I must back the home side.

Man Utd v Man City Goals Market - Is BTTS too short?

It is easy to understand why the market is expecting goals at Old Trafford.

United have conceded twice in each of their three Premier League matches this season. Add in the attacking talent on both sides and it is no surprise to see over 2.5 goals trading at just 1/21.50, with both teams to score similarly short at [4/9].

But there are a couple of reasons why I don't want to blindly follow the market here.

The first is that City away record against teams that qualified for Europe that season.

In the 13-game sample we've identified, the average number of goals was just 1.75 per game. That is a sizeable difference from what the current prices are implying, particularly when you consider that United are exactly the type of opponent City have historically struggled to blow away on the road.

There is another interesting trend in the head-to-head. Both teams to score 'No' has landed in each of the last three meetings.

That is particularly relevant when you consider the price. The market is asking us to take 13/82.63 about the same outcome that has occurred in each of the previous three encounters. That is a tempter.

Premier League Matchday 4: Opta stats and tips for every game

Man Utd v Man City Bet 2 - Bruno's derby foul record makes 15/8 look big

Derby matches are where I am more inclined than usual to lean on historical data for a bet.

The emotional intensity, the familiarity between the players and the tactical patterns that develop between two sides mean previous meetings can be more informative than they might be in a standard Premier League fixture.

That makes 15/82.88 about Bruno Fernandes committing two or more fouls particularly interesting. Fernandes has averaged 2.2 fouls per 90 minutes across his seven Premier League appearances against Manchester City at Old Trafford, clearing this particular line in five of those seven matches.

That is a 71% hit rate, which would imply odds considerably shorter than the 15/82.88.

There is a logical football explanation behind the numbers.

Fernandes is an aggressive midfielder who likes to press, counter-press and compete for second balls. Against City, those defensive responsibilities become particularly important because United are likely to spend periods without the ball and will have to disrupt City's attempts to play through the centre.

And there is a fascinating match-up developing in the middle of the pitch.

Elliott Anderson is set to start for City, and the former Nottingham Forest midfielder has won more fouls than any player in the Premier League since the beginning of last season with 86.

Like the tips? You can back Bruno Fernandes to make two or more fouls in a Man Utd win at 11/2 here!

Now read more Premier League betting advice here