UEFA Super Cup: Back sparks in Salzburg and Kvaradona to shine as PSG meet Villa

Click here for PSG v Aston Villa odds
Wednesday 12 August, 20:00
Red Bull Arena, Salzburg
Live on TNT Sports

Emery chasing more silverware

Given that Aston Villa were at best treading water when he arrived, Unai Emery has worked wonders with the West Midlands giants. They have twice qualified for the Champions League on his watch, and last season's Europa League success represented Villa's first continental success since they won the European Cup and the Super Cup in 1982.

Emery has personally now won the Europa League a record-breaking five times, but he has never won the Super Cup. He has failed in all three attempts to claim the prize, and one of those defeats was Sevilla's 5-4 loss to Luis Enrique's Barcelona.

PSG the world's best club side?

Luis Enrique's current side can legitimately claim to be the best club side in world football. Domestic domination comes as standard, but delivering back-to-back Champions League successes is a truly impressive achievement. The squad is being subtly tweaked for the next set of challenges: Goncalo Ramos, Kang-In Lee and Randal Kolo Muani have all moved on, with Spain's World Cup hero Ferran Torres expected to come in alongside the newly-arrived Monaco star Maghnes Akliouche.

It's no surprise that PSG are already the 5.95/1 favourites to win the Champions League for a third consecutive time, with Bayern Munich 7.413/2 and Arsenal 7.613/2 filling out the top three in the market. PSG are aiming to become the first team since Real Madrid to lift that huge trophy three years in a row.

Villa and PSG have recent head-to-head

These two teams and these two managers have met fairly recently, and fireworks ensued in the 2025 Champions League. PSG won the first leg of the tie 3-1 in France, before Villa's 3-2 success in the second leg gave PSG a real scare.

That's obviously a small sample size, but I am leaning towards goals anyway. In last season's Super Cup, PSG came back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 with Spurs and win on penalties, and nine of the last 14 editions of the showpiece have featured three goals or more.

Super Cup Tip #1: Go with goals

This game comes so early in the season, when new signings are settling in and players are still recovering from a gruelling World Cup, so I'm expecting an element of chaos. Over 2.5 is the slight favourite on both the Betfair Sportsbook and Exchange, but I am drawn to the chunky odds available for Over 3.5 Goals on the Exchange. An early goal could really open this game up, and meetings between these two coaches tend to produce goals - half of their 12 clashes have featured four goals or more, including both legs of the famous Remontada tie between Luis Enrique's Barcelona and Emery's PSG.

On the Sportsbook's Bet Builder, backing Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS would give you a combined price of just under evens.

No clear option in the Super Cup match odds

When it comes to the Match Odds market, I can't get involved with PSG at 8/111.73, given how early we are in the season and how many of their players went deep in the World Cup.

Villa have lost key players in Morgan Rogers and Youri Tielemans, and summer signing Johan Manzambi is injured, but Emery is a wily old fox who can find ways to cause PSG problems.

Summer signings Alejandro Garnacho and Joao Gomes could make their competitive debuts.

Super Cup Tip #2: Kvaratskhelia the key to 11/26.50 Bet Builder

While many of the players involved in Salzburg will have played the World Cup, Georgia's Kvicha Kvaratskhelia had a much-needed break. There's an argument to say he should be in the running to win the Ballon d'Or after another stellar campaign, as the left winger delivered an extraordinary ten goals and six assists in the Champions League.

I'll back Kvaratskhelia to be fouled twice or more, and given that he'll be up against Villa right-back Matty Cash, I'll back Cash to be shown a card. The Polish international picked up 12 yellow cards last term.

Finally I'll back Kvaratskhelia to score or assist, and that takes us to a combined price on the Bet Builder of 11/26.50.

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