Paul Robinson is taking us over the pond tonight for an MLS clash between Montreal Impact and Orlando City in which he thinks that the match will be closer than the odds suggest.
"The Florida based club beat New York City the last time we saw them and they are currently on a run of four without defeat on the road – even if they were all draws."
Montreal Impact v Orlando City
Thursday September 8, 00:30 BST
Live on Sky Sports 2
It was around a fortnight ago that I recommended a lay of Montreal Impact at home to DC United and anyone who followed me in were rewarded with a winner as the game finished 1-1.
My reasoning for opposing them again tonight is pretty much the same - they simply don't win enough games to justify their price.
I will admit that they did record a victory last time out at Toronto but that was only their ninth win of the campaign and they've played 26 times. Even at home it's four victories from 11 and their opponents tonight are showing improved form.
Orlando City may only be seventh in the Eastern Conference but they could move into the all-important top six tonight with a win and even a draw would see them go level on points with DC United.
The Florida based club beat New York City the last time we saw them and they are currently on a run of four without defeat on the road - even if they were all draws.
I struggle to see why the Canadians are so short for this clash, so with their price trading at around the 1.674/6 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Lay Montreal Impact v Orlando City @ 1.674/6
2016/17 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 23 pts
Returned: 21.55 pts