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Tottenham v Ajax: Dutch can deliver again

Andy Schooler
29 April 2019

Andy Schooler says: Back Ajax to win @ 3.05

Dusan Tadic: Has starred in Ajax's run to the last four

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Ajax have already won at Real Madrid and Juventus in the Champions League this season and can add Spurs to their list of scalps on Tuesday, says Andy Schooler...

"Spurs head into the first leg at their new home having lost seven of their last 13 matches in all competitions."

Back Ajax to win @ 3.05

Tottenham v Ajax
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2

For the first time in 57 years, Tottenham Hotspur will play in a Champions League semi-final on Tuesday night.

Had you said that when they had one point after their first three group games - and then thrown in that their opponents would be Dutch side Ajax - surely every Spurs fan would have taken that.

But now, with their first ever European Cup final within touching distance, things don't look quite so encouraging.

Stuttering Spurs

Moussa Sissoko - 1280.jpg

Spurs head into the first leg at their new home having lost seven of their last 13 matches in all competitions.

Injuries and suspensions are now taking their toll. Star striker Harry Kane remains out with ankle damage and the man who has filled his scoring boots admirably when he's been absent, Heung-min Son, is banned for this game.

In midfield, Harry Winks will be absent with a groin strain, while a similar problem is threatening to rule out Moussa Sissoko, a player who has been one of the club's best this term. That's several key players missing for a game of this magnitude.

At least Jan Vertonghen will be fit again, while expect Kieran Trippier, Victor Wanyama and Fernando Llorente all to play - they were all left out of the starting XI for Saturday's 1-0 home defeat to West Ham.

Spurs looked a tired side in that contest, fatigue building after a season in which they've played more games than even boss Mauricio Pochettino would have expected.

The Argentine spoke somewhat worryingly after that game as he looked ahead to this one.

"We wanted to win the three points to be in a good position and arrive in the Champions League game in a very good mood and good way," he said.

"The feeling for everyone has changed quickly. After the win here against Brighton on Tuesday everyone had a very good feeling - that we are having a fantastic season and we are going to arrive in our best condition. But after our defeat today it's like we will arrive the complete opposite."

Heading into this one tired or downbeat, or even both, is not good.

Pass masters

A youthful Ajax side have proved they can pass opponents off the park - they've eliminated holders Real Madrid and Cristiano Ronaldo's Juventus in the previous two rounds.

Both aggregate wins came about due to excellent away performances and the Dutch will be looking to take advantage of Spurs' recent frailties and come away with a similar result.

They have undoubtedly been aided by the decision to postpone the weekend's entire Eredivisie programme - a luxury an English side can only ever dream of - so they've had a full week to focus on this game.

Former Southampton man Dusan Tadic has been a revelation and he has now scored 21 times in his last 26 games.

Much has been made of the Barcelona-bound Frenkie de Jong in midfield and teenager Matthijs de Ligt at the back, another player expected to be snapped up by a European giant in the summer, but there have been plenty of other stars during this run, including Hakim Ziyech, the Moroccan wide man who has a real eye for goal, and the under-rated Donny van de Beek, whose surging runs from midfield have also got him among the goals.

They also have Argentina defender Nicolas Tagliafico back for this game after he missed the win over Juve due to suspension.

Clean up with Ajax

Very much engrained in the traditional Ajax philosophy of pass-and-move football, this team should cause the hosts plenty of problems. The layers have finally cottoned on to their strengths and you aren't getting the price you did in Madrid or Turin, but 3.052/1 still appears to offer some value.

The difference here is that Ajax play the away leg first - in the two previous rounds they've travelled needing to do something (they trailed Real 2-1 and were behind to Juve on away goals having drawn the home leg 1-1).

I therefore doubt Ajax will be quite so attack-minded but, that said, I'm not sure they know how to play football any other way.

Again, it's different circumstances, but they didn't hold back in the first legs against Real and Juve and given they have been so strong on the road (overall they are unbeaten in eight Champions League away games this season) they won't be overly concerned about conceding an away goal.

With the sides' form contrasting - Ajax have won 13 of their last 15, including seven of their last eight away - the Dutch look the bet to win the game at 3.052/1. Spurs are 2.546/4 shots with the draw at 3.55/2.

Goals line hard to call

In terms of the goals markets, over/under 2.5 is pretty much a 50/50 call, according to the odds.

With Spurs looking short on goals given the absence of both Kane and Son, I'd tentatively edge towards unders here but there looks a better related bet in another market.

Wait for it

You can get 6/5 about the first goal coming after the 28th minute.

That's not a price you'd really expect in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie but it's been inflated due to Ajax's attacking play and maybe even the fact Spurs' last game in the competition saw a glut of early goals at Manchester City.

However, both of Spurs' first legs in the knockout stage this season have been goalless at half time, as has one of Ajax's. Even the other only saw the first goal in the 45th minute.

Given Spurs' recent struggles and the fact that their defensive resources are the ones that haven't been depleted, I'd expect them to focus on ensuring Ajax don't start passing through them in the early stages.

Odds-against about this being goalless after 28 minutes looks pretty decent.

Same Game Multi

Getting with the aforementioned Donny van de Beek looks a good way of producing a tastily-priced multi.

He's 10.29 to score in an Ajax win - something that happened against Juventus a fortnight ago.

Midweek verdict: James Horncastle on the Champions League semi-finals

Andy Schooler's P/L 2018/19

Staked: 72pts
Returned: 72.69pts
P/L: +0.69pts

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