Scotland v Brazil: Back Cunha to strike as Ancelotti's men maul Scots in Miami

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Wednesday 24 June, 23:00
Live on BBC One

Scotland could be left needing favours

Directly after Scotland's 1-0 defeat to Morocco, manager Steve Clarke gave a terse pitchside interview in Boston, with the frustration writ large on his face. Scotland had made a dreadful start against the African champions (they conceded the only goal in the second minute), and despite a huge improvement in the second half, the truth is that they rarely threatened. Clarke's men didn't have a single shot on target, and managed just six goal attempts overall.

Scotland know that a win or a draw against Brazil will see them secure knockout football at the World Cup for the first time, but a narrow defeat could also see them progress, depending on the records of the other third-placed teams in the group stage. Third place is lowest Scotland will end up, with Haiti guaranteed to finish bottom, and Scotland would progress if they are one of the eight best third-placed teams.

The concern is that Scotland just haven't been able to get their best attacking players into dangerous positions often enough. Scott McTominay has had four shots, none of which were on target. Striker Che Adams has had just one shot, while John McGinn - scorer of the winner against Haiti - has only had three shots. Clarke says he's been emphasising the positives to his players, showing them moments when they got into promising positions.

Clarke must decide how he wants to set up his team. He played an attacking 4-4-2 in the win over Haiti, but against Morocco he brought Ryan Christie into midfield in a more conservative formation that didn't really work. In-form striker Lawrence Shankland will hope for a recall after being left on the bench for the entirety of the Morocco defeat.

Ancelotti still with questions to answer

While five-time Champions League-winning coach Carlo Ancelotti was an eye-catching hire by Brazil, he was not a universally popular one. Some fans and followers of the Selecao are outraged that a foreign coach has been hired, even though a series of Brazilian bosses made a complete mess of the qualifying campaign.

Brazil lost six of their 18 qualifiers and finished fifth in the table, a full 10 points behind the table-toppers Argentina.

Ancelotti's idea going into these finals was to field a 4-2-4, a formation designed to cram his best attacking talents into the team. Some poor displays before the tournament - featuring some enormous gaps in midfield - have led the Italian to a more balanced and pragmatic 4-3-3.

Lucas Paqueta is yet to impress as the third midfielder alongside Bruno Guimaraes and Casemiro, and he has the likes of Danilo and new Manchester United signing Ederson breathing down his neck.

Barcelona star Raphinha has had a season disrupted by injury, and he has once again been sidelined. The former Leeds forward suffered a thigh injury during the 3-0 win over Haiti, but scans have shown he doesn't need to be sent home. Manchester United forward Matheus Cunha seems to have nailed down the number nine spot ahead of Igor Thiago, reinforcing his claim with a brace against a stubborn Haiti.

Vinicius Junior has often felt the weight of the Brazil shirt, but the Real Madrid superstar has delivered goals in both matches so far, and his overall record in the World Cup finals is six goal involvements in six matches. His stunning equaliser in the 1-1 draw with Morocco was one of the goals of the tournament so far.

Scotland set for Miami mauling

I was bullish about Scotland's qualification prospects ahead of the tournament, but in all honesty that was predicated upon them getting a sizeable win against Haiti. The narrow, nervy nature of that victory has given the Tartan Army cause to bite their nails.

Brazil need a win to give themselves a realistic chance of topping the group ahead of Morocco, and they might have to push for a big margin of victory to make sure. Even though Ancelotti's men are nowhere near their best, they should have too much firepower for Scotland cope with.

Scotland were sliced open in 70 seconds against Morocco, and the prospect of Grant Hanley and Jack Hendry trying to contain Rayan, Vinicius Junior and Matheus Cunha is a scary one.

I'll back Brazil -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.166/5 on the Betfair Exchange. Scotland could wilt in the heat of Miami (a humidity of 67% and temperatures of 31 degrees Celsius are predicted), they have offered very little going forward, and it's not a huge stretch to back Brazil to win by a multiple-goal margin.

Cunha goal can inspire 11/43.75 treble

While Brentford's Igor Thiago fluffed his lines in the opening game against Morocco, his replacement Cunha looked super-sharp against Haiti, scoring twice. The 27-year-old scored in three of his final four games for Manchester United this season, and I'll back him to score again here as part of an 11/43.75 treble on the Betfair Sportsbook's Bet Builder.

I'll throw in a Brazil win and Scotland to pick up the most cards. Scotland have committed a sizeable tally of 34 fouls across their two games and have accrued four cautions. In the cloying heat of Miami against talented opposition, I can see them becoming frustrated.

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