Chelsea are 1-0 up on aggregate in their Champions League tie with Atletico Madrid and Dan Fitch expects the Blues' uncharitable defence to see them through...
"Chelsea’s defensive record should give them confidence. The 0-0 away draw at Leeds on Saturday, was their fifth consecutive clean sheet."
Chelsea 2.3411/8 v Atletico Madrid 3.613/5; The Draw 3.412/5
Wednesday 17 March, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
Secure Chelsea hold the advantage
Chelsea have the advantage, as they go into the second-leg of this last-16 tie in the Champions League.
The Blues beat Atletico Madrid 1-0 in the first-leg, which was held on neutral territory in Romania. Now Chelsea not only have an aggregate lead, but the benefit of hosting the second-leg at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea's defensive record should give them confidence. The 0-0 away draw at Leeds on Saturday, was their fifth consecutive clean sheet. Since Thomas Tuchel took charge of the club, they have only conceded two goals in 12 matches, keeping 10 clean sheets in total. To put that achievement into perspective, Chelsea had conceded 15 goals in the previous 12 matches under Frank Lampard.
Tuchel only has a couple of injuries in his talented squad, as he prepares to go into this crucial match. Thiago Silva and Tammy Abraham both missed the game against Leeds at the weekend.
Atletico's La Liga lead is diminishing
Atletico Madrid now need to approach the second-leg of this tie in a different way to how they played in the first-leg.
With Atletico showing plenty of attacking flair and a cutting edge this season, they should really have sought to get themselves ahead in what was meant to be a home-leg. Instead, Diego Simeone set his side up very defensively and paid the price against a Chelsea side that are now rarely conceding themselves.
At the weekend, Atletico dominated their away match against Getafe, but could not find a goal in a game that finished 0-0. The draw means that if Barcelona win their match on Monday night, Atletico's lead at the top of La Liga will be reduced to four points.
Having looked like they had the La Liga title tied up, just a few weeks ago, Atletico are now under real pressure. One thing Simeone doesn't have to worry about though, are injuries, with all of his squad available for this fixture.
Draw holds trading potential
Chelsea are the favourites at 2.3411/8, with the draw at 3.412/5 and an Atletico Madrid win at 3.613/5.
The draw holds some appeal, in a match that seems destined to be tight and low scoring. Under Tuchel, nine of their 12 matches have either been drawn or won by a single goal, so the draw should offer trading potential, at the least.
Under 2.5 goals better value than it seems
It's no surprise to see that under 2.5 goals is a strong favourite at 1.645/8, with overs out at 2.3611/8.
Under 2.5 goals has landed in 11 of the 12 matches under Tuchel. Even accounting for the fact that Atletico need to be more ambitious, the 1.645/8 would seem to offer more value than one might initially think.
In seven of the 12 games, under 1.5 goals has been a successful bet and can be backed at 2.915/8. Another bet to consider is for one of these well-drilled teams to keep a clean sheet. In the both teams to score market, 'no' can be backed at 1.910/11.
Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L
Staked: 442.00 pts
Returned: 451.85 pts
P/L: +9.85 pts