India v Pakistan: Dhawan and Jadeja key in India win

Jamie Pacheco
02 June 2017

Dhawan took this tournament by the scruff of the neck four years ago and could be a big star in it again.

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Two of the game's biggest rivals meet on Sunday but it's been all India of late in this clash and they're short enough. So the best bets lie in the man-of-the-match market, says Jamie Pacheco...

"As highlighted in that piece on India, it was actually Dhawan who really shone when India won this tournament four years ago. He was top runscorer and player of the tournament. He’s bigger than either of those two at 10/1."

India v Pakistan
Sunday June 4 10:30
Live on Sky Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video

India

If you've read my pre-tournament piece, you'll know I'm very sweet on India's chances and I've given my top 5 reasons as to why I think they were (and still are) a great bet to go all the way.

We know what their main strengths are: in Rohit Sharma, Shikhar Dhawan and Virat Kohli they have three absolute run machines who can not only start super-quickly, they can also go on to make big centuries. If there's any turn at all, Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja will exploit it as well as anyone in the tournament. And though there are a couple of newish faces likes Jasprit Bumrah and Hardik Pandya, there's also a wealth of experience in the side. Kohli (179 ODIs), Sharma (153), Ashwin (105) and Jadeja (129) are some of the more experienced players and that's still nothing compared to Yuvraj Singh (296) and MS Dhoni (286).

Assuming Dhoni bats at 5 and Ajinka Rahane at 4, the team pretty mucks picks itself with the only real doubts being at number 6 where Yuvraj Singh, Dinesh Karthik and Kedar Jadhav are all competing for one spot. A lower-middle order of Jadeja (7), Pandya (8) and Ashwin (9) is one of the stronger ones India have had.

Pakistan

Where do we start with this lot? Pakistan swing bowlers have always had plenty of fun in English conditions ever since Wasim Akram was Lancashire's King of Swing for season after season from the late 80s to late 90s. So all eyes on Mohammad Amir, Junaid Khan and the fiery Wahab Riaz.

A middle-order of Shoaib Malik, skipper Sarfraz Ahmed and Babar Azam is fine but it's up top that you start to worry. Mohammed Hafeez, Azhar Ali and Ahmed Shezhad have too often been guilty of the cardinal sin of eating up too many deliveries in the power play overs and then getting out when they should be kicking on.

Strangely for a Pakistan ODI side, there's no champion spinner to put the breaks on. Saeed Ajmal is in the twilight of his career, Shahid Afridi is retired from international cricket and their big Test star Yasir Shah has just never really got to grips with white-ball cricket.

Match Odds

It's tempting to recommend a trade on Pakistan. Back them now at 2.962/1 and you'd think that at some stage they'd touch around 2.26/5 for a profit of sorts. You'd think their best chance of doing that would be to bowl first and snaffle a couple of early wickets in favourable bowling conditions. The problem with that strategy is that so far this tournament the ball hasn't really swung early on. Nether England nor Australia managed to make early inroads bowling first. And Dhawan and Sharma can be so destructive early on that the 2.962/1 is as short as they'll get.

And you really can't trust Pakistan to make a good start if they're first up with the bat.

What's not a good idea is to let your bet on Pakistan ride. It's hard to think of an ICC tournament over the last decade or so where India haven't beaten them.

Top Pakistan Batsman

So far it's been the number 3s who have enjoyed themselves the most. Joe Root scored a brilliant unbeaten century and Kane Williamson of New Zealand also played a super knock. And it might pay to go with Pakistan's 'first drop down' batsman Babar Azam, especially given he's arguably Pakistan's best batsman anyway.

26 ODIs is a relatively small sample to go by but it's just about enough to think he's no flash in the pan. Five centuries, six fifties and an average of 55.0 suggests Azam is the man to finally take over the mantle from the likes of Younis Khan and Misbah Ul-Haq as the rock of this Pakistan batting line-up.

Yes, it's a negative he hasn't really had much experience of English conditions but he's worth chancing, especially with question marks over Ali and Shezhad at the top of the order.

Man-of-the-match

We've established that India have Pakistan's number in ICC tournaments and that it's not much fun having a play on India at 1.51/2. So we can go with a couple of players in key positions for man-of-the-match honours. Virat Kohli is understandably the favourite at 6/1, followed by Rohit Sharma at 8/1. But as highlighted in that piece on India, it was actually Dhawan who really shone when India won this tournament four years ago. He was top runscorer and player of the tournament. He's bigger than either of those two at 10/1.

The second selection is the other man highlighted in that piece. Ravi Jadeja is almost certain to bowl his 10 overs of darts at the stumps with subtle variations of pace but you might get a second bite of the cherry. He's sometimes promoted up the order and may actually have more of a bat than you'd think, should Pakistan make early inroads.

Recommended Bets

1pt Back Babar Azam to be Pakistan Top Batsman @ 10/3 on Betfair Sportsbook
0.5pts Back Shikhar Dhawan to be man of the match @ 10/1 on Betfair Sportsbook
0.5pts Back Ravindra Jadeja to be man of the match @ 16/1

Jamie's Champions Trophy P and L

Points recommended: 1 pts
Points returned: 0
P and L: -1