India v South Africa First ODI Tips: Burger tasty value at 10/3

• India without skipper Gill so Rahul will lead

• Ranchi pitch tricky to call
• Rohit and Kohli reassure India

• Bavuma back to open?

• Burger has win rate on side

India v South Africa
Sunday 30 November, 08.00
TV: Live on TNT

India v South Africa first ODI team news

India will be pleased to see the return of the old guard and a format in which they are dominant. Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli in the ODI blue is reassuring to a billion-wide panic attack about the nation's Test form.

Shubman Gill is still out with a neck problem so KL Rahill will lead the side. Shreyas Iyer is injured so one of Tilak Varma or Dhruv Jurel will get the extra batting slot. Ravi Jadeja and Washington Sundar are picked as the key all-rounders with no place for Axar Patel. Jasprit Bumrah is rested.

Possible India XI: Jaiswal, Rohit, Kohli, Tilak, Rahul, Pant, Jadeja, Washington, Kuldeep, Harshit, Arshdeep

South Africa are buzzing after their 2-0 Test series so we could see a relaxed side happy to play with freedom and aggression. With Temba Bavuma back he or Aiden Markram will be fighting it out to open alongside Quinton de Kock.

Their balance may be improved if South Africa think this pitch spins. Pren Subryaen would add batting depth and useful overs. Kagiso Rabada is not involved. Lungi Ngidi is in the squad. 

Possible South Africa XI: De Kock, Markram, , Bavuma, De Zorzi, Breetzke, Brevis, Bosch, Jansen, Maharaj, Burger, Ngidi/Subrayen

India v South Africa first ODI pitch report

There have been only two ODI in Ranchi in the last five years. That's far from ideal with pitch conditions vital to working out where the value may lie. We are guessing, then, but the suspicion is that this could be one for the batters. Twin matches in ODI in 2022 suggested as much. Australia's 313 trumped India's 281 and South Africa failed to defend 278.

We would expect the par line to be very close (or over) 300. India's average runs for and against in the last ten at home is 316 and 223 and South Africa's (home and away) is 225 and 270.

India v South Africa first ODI match prediction

Those for and against numbers show the size of the task facing South Africa in this contest and the odds reflect that with the hosts as skinny as 1.422/5. Indeed, India have won 22 of their last 26 at home in this format. 

But we don't need a bet to run the length of the match. The visitors should have enough about them to be competitive and get those odds down, particularly if they bat first. Conscious this could be a road, a trade could be a chastening experience if the toss goes against them.

But their batters won't fear India and they could well put a score down which could see them pinch favourite status for a spell. A back-to-lay from starting odds of 3.309/4 into that 1.855/6 region is the plan.

India v South Africa first ODI player bets

Rohit has an incredible win rate, copping in line with an evens chance in the last 14. We always suspect he needs time to warm up, though, so we might be cheeky and hope the 7/24.50 remains in place for game two. 

Nothing sticks out as a rick for top South Africa bat although Matt Breetzke (three wins from a short study sample of nine) is a potential at 11/26.50. The win rate that we are prepared to get involved with comes from Nandre Burger. He has won top bowler in five of the last 12 so should be skinnier than the 10/34.33 on offer. 

Don't miss our special Ashes coverage HERE