Premier League Betting: Liverpool v Tottenham

Premier League / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 19 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Michael Dawson and Heurelho Gomes have been big factors in Spurs being so tight at the back this season

"Deprived of their aforementioned dynamic duo, I can’t see where Liverpool’s goals are going to come from against an in-form defence; let’s not forget that Liverpool’s goal against Stoke was down to a blunder by Thomas Sorensen."

An important battle in the race for a top four finish takes place on Wednesday night as Spurs visit a Liverpool side deprived of their two most potent attackers. Jamie Pacheco talks us through the betting....

"There are two sides to every story" or "are you a glass half full or half empty person" are two similar sort of concepts. Take Liverpool's draw at Stoke for example. Do you take the view that Liverpool were unlucky to have taken a point from the match rather than all three given they conceded in the 90th minute and could have won the game with virtually the last kick of the game when Dirk Kuyt hit the upright? Or are you of the opinion that given they had no corners (to Stoke's 10) and just the one shot on target, they were lucky to get anything from the match at all? In my view the draw was probably the right result on the day but the stats mentioned above show that without Steven Gerard and Fernando Torres, Liverpool created virtually nothing against a side who are hard to break down at home, but are certainly no world beaters.

Not that Tottenham fared much better that afternoon. Stats show they did everything except score but when you are at home to a side who are just [1.75] for the drop, as Hull are, you need to be scoring at least once. The match odds show Liverpool at [2.5] with Tottenham at [3.15] and the draw at [3.4].

When one thinks of Tottenham's season so far it's easy to remember Jermain Defoe's five goals against Wigan, Aaron Lennon's speedy runs down the right wing and the likes of Niko Kranjcar and Peter Crouch chipping in with a handful of goals of their own. But to do so is to ignore the fact that Spurs' defence has been superb, conceding just 22 goals all season in the league and keeping six clean sheets in their last six in all competitions. Deprived of their aforementioned dynamic duo, I can't see where Liverpool's goals are going to come from against an in-form defence; let's not forget that Liverpool's goal against Stoke was down to a blunder by Thomas Sorensen. Whereas I wouldn't put anyone off laying Liverpool at [2.5], I think the even better bet is to back a seventh consecutive Spurs clean sheet at odds of [3.7].

Whereas Betfair punters are often drawn to the "big money" markets such as match odds, over/under 2.5 goals and first goalscorer, the better value is sometimes found away from them. A case in point is the corners match bet which asks which of the two teams will be awarded the most corners (or whether it will be a draw). I mentioned the fact that Liverpool got no corners at Stoke and Spurs do prefer to play with two wide men, whilst Liverpool play narrower. But the Stoke match was clearly a bit of an anomaly given that Liverpool average 11 corners a game to Tottenham's 7.4. Liverpool may have been poor against Stoke but you have to expect them to at least have more posession in front of their own crowd, which should lead to corners. Besides, their best chance of a goal may well come from a set piece so they will happily welcome any that may come their way. If you can lay Spurs in this market at anything under [3.3], it's worth doing.

A final word on Liverpool's long-term prospects. If you assume that Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea will finish in the top three and that under Roberto Mancini Manchester City look good for a top four finish, it takes not that big a leap of faith to hope that two from Aston Villa, Spurs or even Birmingham City can finish the season strongly and in the process above Liverpool. You can lay Liverpool at [1.43] for a top 6 finish and if the injuries continue to plague Gerrard and Torres and that's coupled with a little bad luck, Liverpool could find themselves finish the season as lowly as seventh.