Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 02 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Ralph Ellis reflects on a weekend of Premier League football which exposed Liverpool's lack of depth as well as Manchester United's failure to replace Cristiano Ronaldo.

“I’d back Chelsea to win it because they have a lot more players with the ability to change games in the blink of an eye.”

There's no such thing, the professionals will tell you, as a two-man team. It doesn't matter how good the best individuals are, they argue, they cannot carry a poor group on their own. Their wisdom is that you need a minimum of seven players on top form in any game to win it.

The rest of us? Well we tend to take a more jaundiced view. We know the handful of key players in every side who make the difference. Turn up to watch your team play against Liverpool, for instance, and you are worried only about Steven Gerrard scoring with one of those blistering shots from 20 yards, or Fernando Torres leaving your centre-half dead for pace before tucking the ball in the bottom corner.

When you're playing Chelsea it's Didier Drogba's power that will worry you, coupled with Frank Lampard's breaks from midfield; against Manchester United there's Wayne Rooney's endless industry.

They are the game breakers, the people who can do something exceptional to change a match that's drifting towards stalemate. And the number of them in any one side is what ultimately makes the difference when it comes to winning titles. Take one or two with that special ability out because of injuries and what's left?

In Liverpool's case the answer is pretty much nothing. No Gerrard on Saturday, and no Torres for the last half an hour, gave Fulham all the invitation they needed for a 3-1 win to become the fifth team to take three points from Rafa Benitez this season. The worry for the manager is that Torres will miss more games. He was absent for 30 per cent of Liverpool's matches last season and the same could happen again - one reason not to back him at [3.75] to be the Premier League's top scorer despite his blistering start to the campaign.

Benitez is looking down the barrel with his side now only just the short side of even money at [1.93] to finish in the top four. History says one more defeat means they can't win the title.

So who can? Interesting to see the comments of Blackburn's Ryan Nelsen after his side's 2-0 defeat at Old Trafford completed a three-match horror run of defeats to Arsenal, Chelsea and then United, shipping 13 goals in the process. "I'd back Chelsea to win it because they have a lot more players with the ability to change games in the blink of an eye."

That's a view shared by Betfair's punters who make Carlo Ancelotti's side [2.34] favourites after their 4-0 demolition of Bolton at The Reebok. And they are also [2.12] favourites to cement their position at the top with a win when they play United at Stamford Bridge on Sunday. Lampard has rediscovered his goal touch with four in his last three matches, Drogba is in bullying, hungry mood, and they also have the mercurial talents of Joe Cole waiting to be brought on. For United, in contrast, Antonio Valencia remains a very ordinary replacement for the brilliance of Ronaldo.

Arsenal's team ethic makes them anything but a two-man show. Gunners' fans still worry about their lack of a Patrick Vieira style midfield man, but they have big options for goalscoring, as Robin Van Persie proved in a 3-0 North London derby romp. As well as the Dutchman, Wenger has Eduardo, Andrey Arshavin and the super confident Nicklas Bendtner up his sleeve. Three points behind United with a game in hand they are tempting at [2.4] a top two finish.

Among the clubs trying to break into the top four, the key players are often not the attackers but the defenders. Aston Villa will lean heavily on Richard Dunne and James Collins as a gutsy 1-1 draw at Everton proved. Manchester City still rely too much on the steadying midfield influence of Gareth Barry and goalkeeper Shay Given who saved a penalty in yesterday's 0-0 draw at Birmingham. And Tottenham collapse if Ledley King is off key, a point underlined at The Emirates.

I still think Wigan, [9.0] to go down, could slide back into trouble, and a 4-0 thrashing by bottom club Portsmouth did nothing to change that view. They have only Hugo Rodallega, who is still finding his Premier League feet, to scare you. And then there's Hull, beaten 2-0 at Burnley and now [2.32] favourites to be rock bottom.

Incredibly, Hull have built up the division's seventh highest wage bill under Phil Brown, and frankly have nobody at all to give you sleepless nights. The seven-year-old who turned up at your door trick-or-treating on Saturday night was far more frightening than their top scorer Geovanni!

Tags: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, football betting, Hugo Rodellega, Liverpool, Manchester United, Portsmouth Town, Premier League betting odds, Premier League betting tips, Ralph Ellis, Tottenham Hotspur, Wayen Rooney, Wigan Athletic