Lewis Jones' Notebook: Three opening weekend clues that could unlock Premier League betting value

The opening weekend is where bettors should be hunting for change

When looking for inspiration for this week's column, the subject matter was staring me straight in the face. This is of course the Jones Knows Notebook - and guess what - I do keep an actual weekly notebook when it comes to reviewing the weekend action based around information learnt that potentially the markets haven't spotted yet.

Forget the league table. Forget the narratives.

I'm watching for information.

The opening weekend is effectively one giant scouting mission for bettors. It is the first competitive evidence we get of how a new manager actually wants his team to play, where players are being positioned, which set-piece taker has changed, who looks fitter, who has been given more attacking responsibility and whether what we saw in pre-season was actually real.

The bookmakers have smart people watching these games too, of course. But markets don't always adjust immediately to subtle changes in role and process.

Here are three angles that caught my eye...

Angle #1 - Yoane Wissa player shots, fouls won and goal involvement markets

There were signs during pre-season that Yoane Wissa was beginning to look like himself again after a difficult first year at Newcastle. But against Liverpool, we saw something potentially more significant than simply a player rediscovering his form.

Matthias Jaissle put him in the No.10 role.

And, for long periods, Wissa ran the show.

Newcastle were relentless without the ball, pressing and counter-pressing whenever possession was lost and Wissa was at the heart of it.

The numbers tell the story.

Four shots. An assist for Joe Willock's goal. Four fouls won. A booking. And seven total foul involvements.

But the important bit isn't necessarily the seven fouls. It's why they happened.

Wissa was constantly around the ball. He was aggressive in the press, willing to jump onto Liverpool's defenders and his movement in possession made him extremely difficult to pick up. Newcastle's second goal came from exactly that type of involvement, with Wissa creating the opening for Willock.

We often think of Wissa as a goalscorer - understandably so given his record at Brentford - but this role could create a much broader portfolio of betting opportunities.

Angle #2 - Chelsea games could become an overs paradise

Xabi Alonso's first competitive Chelsea side looked nothing like the slow, possession-heavy team we saw for long periods last season.

It was aggressive. It was vertical. And it was quite chaotic.

João Pedro scored after just 32 seconds, Morgan Rogers scored on his debut and the scintillating Cole Palmer scored after previously coming close with a curling effort.

The really interesting bit was the structure.

Alonso used a 3-4-2-1, with Palmer and Rogers operating behind João Pedro. The trio combined for all three Chelsea goals and Alonso subsequently described them as central to what he is building.

However, Chelsea conceded twice as Robert Sánchez made another costly error and Fulham had opportunities to punish a defence that looked vulnerable when Chelsea's aggressive shape was exposed. That lack of defensive cohesion stems from the lack of authority from the goalkeeper.

Are Chelsea now structurally a team capable of producing these types of matches regularly? I'd be confident of that answer being yes, meaning there will be value in their total goal lines in the coming weeks.

Angle #3: Jack Hinshelwood player shots/goal involvement markets

Jack Hinshelwood scoring twice in Brighton's 4-0 demolition of Aston Villa will inevitably trigger a reaction from the bookmakers.

But the goals aren't the reason I'm interested.

The position is.

Hinshelwood has been moved into a No 10 role by Fabian Hurzeler, a switch which transformed his output during the second half of last season. He started only seven of Brighton's first 25 league matches but then started all 13 of their remaining games, producing three goals and three assists from the more advanced position.

Against Villa, we saw exactly why that matters.

He wasn't playing like a midfielder arriving occasionally into the box. He was playing like an attacker. He had two shots on target and an xG of 1.41 despite playing only 64 minutes.

The market will price the two goals. It is less likely to immediately price the underlying positional change.

And Brighton have Chelsea next.

That is obviously a significant step up in opposition, but it is also exactly the type of fixture where Brighton's attacking midfielders can benefit from transitions. Chelsea played an aggressive, high-tempo game in their 3-2 win at Fulham and left plenty of space during the contest.

So I'm interested in Hinshelwood's shots and shots-on-target markets along with his price in the goalscorer market.

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