Click here for Fulham v Chelsea odds
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

Don't expect a repeat of last season

Monday Night Football commences a new season with a West London Derby as Fulham host Chelsea in front of the Sky Sports cameras.

The Cottagers finished last season level on points with the Blues, but you would likely get big odds on a repeat this term with Fulham among the relegation favourites at 5/16.00, while big-spending Chelsea have been touted as genuine title contenders at 9/110.00.

It's hard to disagree with those prices. Fulham have lost arguably their two best players in Harry Wilson and Raul Jimenez, while experienced Premier League manager Marco Silva has also exited the Cottage.

Alvaro Arbeloa is the new manager at Fulham, but with just half a trophyless season in charge of La Liga giants Real Madrid under his belt, he has a lot to prove at this level. Midfielder Shea Charles (one substitute appearance in the Premier League) and striker Gonzalo Garcia (nine La Liga starts in three years at Real Madrid) are Fulham's major summer signings.

Chelsea have spent big, again. No less than 10 new players have arrived at Stamford Bridge, including vastly-experienced Premier League veterans Jordan Henderson and Danny Welbeck, £52m defender Maxence Lacroix, exciting Premier League newcomers Marco Palesta and Valentin Barco, and of course, £117m British-record signing Morgan Rogers.

Chelsea's intent is obvious, and they have Bundesliga-winning manager and former Real Madrid boss Xabi Alonso in charge, a manager who knows the Premier League well thanks to his five seasons as a player at Liverpool.

Back Blues to win with room to spare

Given what's expected from each club this season and their summer transfer activity then it's no surprise to see Chelsea favourites on the Betfair Sportsbook Match Odds market.

What is surprising is Chelsea's price of 20/231.87. I was expecting to see the Blues priced up at around 4/61.67 and possibly shorter. You can back Fulham to take all three points at 3/14.00, while it's 29/103.90 for the Draw.

Below is a chart showing the percentage chance of each outcome based on the Betfair Exchange Match Odds market.

I'm fully expecting a Chelsea win here and believe that price of 20/231.87 is more than fair. It's a bet I'll be including in a Bet Builder further down this page.

The Blues have a very good recent record in this fixture, winning six of the last eight meetings at Craven Cottage, and I just sense that they're raring to go with their very strong new-look squad.

Alonso's men finished pre-season strongly, scoring exactly three goals in all of their last three matches, including a thumping 3-0 win over AC Milan, and I won't be surprised if they score at least three goals again on Monday night in what could turn out to be a statement win.

Fulham's pre-season was average at best, with their last three matches resulting in a loss to Crystal Palace, a draw with newly promoted Spanish side Malaga, and a narrow 1-0 win over Bundesliga outfit Stuttgart.

I admit that pre-season results should be taken with a pinch of salt, and I will be doing that myself, but I'm encouraged by the amount of goals Chelsea have scored and I'm happy to back what should be an extremely strong line-up - that could feature a front three of Morgan Rogers, Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro - to record a comfortable win.

Add James and Pedro to 15/28.50 Bet Builder

In line with my thinking that Chelsea could start the new season with a bang, there are a few players that I want to get on side in a Bet Builder that includes the away win.

Alonso likes to play three at the back with two wide men, and that means that defender Reece James could play much further forward - as he did in Chelsea's recent 3-1 friendly win over Real Sociedad - so shots is the way I'm playing the Blues' captain.

He's 6/42.50 to register two shots on Monday night (on or off target), and I think that's a cracking price given that he loves to get forward, shoot from distance, and is one of Chelsea's regular free-kick takers.

I know the England international is injury-prone, but we don't need to worry about that if he starts against Fulham as we'll be protected by Safe Sub, meaning should James be substituted, then our bet will roll over to the player that replaces him.

And finally I'm going to include a Joao Pedro anytime goal to the Bet Builder that pays out at a healthy 15/28.50.

The 24-year-old Brazilian looks certain to be Chelsea's main striker this term, and he's enjoyed an excellent pre-season, scoring four goals in his last two appearances. With Rogers and Palmer supplying him, he looks a lively contender in the Premier League's Top Goalscorer market at 16/117.00, but for now, it's fingers crossed he gets off the mark at Craven Cottage.

Bookmark our Premier League page for all the latest news, tips and previews.