Champions League Betting: Liverpool v Chelsea

Champions League / Feizal Rahman / 07 April 2009 / 1 Comments

The combination of expansive football, a master tactician in the dugout and a breathtaking atmosphere persuade Feizal Rahman that Liverpool will prevail against Chelsea on Wednesday night. Best Bet: Liverpool Half Time/Full Time @ [4.4].

There were groans when Liverpool and Chelsea were paired for the fifth consecutive season in the Champions League but the Reds' recent form makes this tie especially appetising.

Chelsea, [2.1] to qualify, have had the upper hand domestically over those five years while Liverpool [1.89] have achieved greater success in Europe. However, Rafael Benitez's men have turned the table in the Premier League this season and have re-ignited the title race. Unbeaten in five home meetings with Chelsea in all competitions - and having done the league double over them already this season - Liverpool will be confident of a first-leg win at [2.3], with Chelsea [4.0] to take a lead back to Stamford Bridge and the draw [3.1].

In their eight previous Champions League encounters, Liverpool have been victorious twice, Chelsea just once, with five games drawn. At Anfield, however, the home side have won twice - in both years they made the final - and been held to a stalemate on the other two occasions.

Typically, these fixtures have been tense, tactical affairs with few goals. A 0-0 and 1-0 score line has been recorded three times each - with a 1-1 result occurring twice - so the [1.53] on offer for Under 2.5 goals would seem fair. The Correct Score selection for each of these previous results trades in between [6.8] and [7.8]. However, Liverpool have been trigger-happy in their last five games, with 16 goals scored and only one (a penalty at Old Trafford) conceded.

Benitez has forged a reputation as a master tactician in Europe but one who tends to err on the side of caution. Recent form suggests a change of ideology with more emphasis on free-flowing, expansive football. The Reds have failed to score in only two of their last 22 Champions League games, of which they have proved invincible in the most recent eight. Their five-year record in the knockout stages of the tournament is equally impressive with eight wins, one draw and only two losses in 11 fixtures.

The Anfield atmosphere on European nights can be breathtaking and the pre-match passion of the crowd transfers itself onto the field - Liverpool have scored within the first 30 minutes six times in their last nine Champions League home games. Two of the three scored against Chelsea in all previous home ties also came before the half-hour mark (and the other just ahead of half-time), so a punt on an early opener could provide dividends with 0-10, 11-20 and 21-30 minutes all available at around [6.0].

Liverpool captain Steven Gerrard is the competition's joint top scorer with seven goals and has scored six in his last four in all competitions. The midfield dynamo is sure to prove popular in the First Goalscorer market at around [7.0], along with striker Fernando Torres at [6.0].

However, Liverpool have reaped rewards down their left side of late and Albert Riera and Fabio Aurelio can be backed to break the deadlock at [17.0] and [34.0] respectively. Should Andrea Dossena - with recent goals against Real Madrid and Manchester United - replace either of these two on the flank, then he may prove a tempting outsider in the region of [40.0].

In contrast, Chelsea's fortunes in Europe have been less auspicious. Without a win in four away trips this season, there's little to inspire confidence going into this contest. More worrying though is their record in the knockout stages of the Champions League in the last five seasons. Winning only once in eleven fixtures, the Blues have suffered defeat on five occasions and shared the spoils as many times.

It will be interesting to see how temporary manager Guus Hiddink approaches the game. The Dutchman won the European Cup with PSV Eindhoven in 1988 and took them to the semi-finals of this competition in 2005 - so with far superior players now at his disposal, he should feel better equipped to re-live past glories. Didier Drogba is likely to be passed fit to play and, back to his best since the arrival of Hiddink, he is as short as [3.1] to score anytime, with Frank Lampard - who always rises to the big occasion - available at [4.0].

As demonstrated by their late winner at Fulham on Saturday, there's something about this current Liverpool side that hints at destiny, be it a long-awaited league title, a sixth European crown or even both. The shift in style - displaying a rarely seen confidence - suggests Benitez has very nearly discovered the formula he has been looking for and instead of relying on conservative methods to prevail, a new-found ruthlessness has been harnessed. In spite of their recent upheaval, Chelsea remain an imposing team but they may have caught Liverpool at the wrong time and could have a mountain to climb in the return leg in a week's time.

Comments (1)

1. donlaughlinsriverside | 07 April 2009

   CHELSEA!! FOR EVER