Unfair criticism make 5 After Midnight a value bet again, writes Jack Houghton, whereas Saara Aalto will struggle to survive Fright Night week...
"Saara Aalto may have been given a lifeline in last week's show by singing last, but it is likely that producers will now cast her adrift..."
What Happened Last Week?
Saara Alto survived - primarily as a result of singing last, statistically a huge advantage - although her rendition of the Bjork classic It's Oh So Quiet was her best performance yet. Perhaps more significantly, last week's tip Ryan Lawrie was only third from bottom, despite performing woefully in the show-opening coffin-slot. This suggests he has a hard-core following who are voting for him despite his lack of talent, and he might yet survive a few more weeks as a result.
Relley C wasn't awful, but has to be one of the most forgettable X-Factor contestants since what's-his-face and oojamaflip, and Four of Diamonds just look a bit awkward. It wasn't a huge surprise that both acts were in trouble.
Who Are The Likely Winners?
Matt Terry has now shortened to odds-on. I'm not sure I would back him at [1.74] given how long there is to go, but he was, once again, the most polished and talented act on display.
5 After Midnight have drifted out to [6.40] - partially in response to Matt's shortening and partially as a result of Cowell's stinging criticism on Saturday's show. While their rendition of Valerie may have been more Reggie N' Bollie than relevant-commercial-artist, it's worth remembering that they were still good and that Reggie N' Bollie came second last year churning out weekly performances less musical and less enjoyable than 5 After Midnight are producing. They are likely to shorten again this week and their odds look value again.
What Will Happen This Week?
Last year's winner Louisa Johnson will perform during Fright Night. Expect explicit costumes and resultant consternation. Some will complain that the show is inappropriate for family viewing, while an official spokesperson will say that Louisa is a young woman who is expressing her personality through what she chooses to wear (as she sings and dances in front of an ageing man in a chair who is paying her money...) This year's contestants will put on crazy costumes and everyone will profess to having great fun.
Who's For The Chop?
Saara Aalto may have been given a lifeline in last week's show by singing last, but it is likely that producers will now cast her adrift. Expect her to be early on the bill and expect an uncomfortable performance as she struggles with the brief. At around [2.90] she looks a solid bet to be eliminated.
1-point back Saara Aalto at [2.90] in 4th Elimination market.
5-point back 5 After Midnight at [6.20] in Winner market - OPEN
1-point back Freddy Parker at [3.20] in 2nd Elimination market - WON
5-point back Matt Terry at [3.50] in Winner market - OPEN
3-point back Samantha Lavery at [12.50] in Winner market - OPEN
1-point back Relley C at [3.25] in 1st Elimination market - LOST
1-point back Saara Alto at [7.00] in 1st Elimination market - LOST
1-point back Ryan Lawrie at [5.60] in 3rd Elimination market - OPEN