Eurovision 2025 Tips: Slovenia to stumble in semi, and back France for glory

• Sweden too short in Eurovision odds at evens

• France worth backing in Top 4 and Winner markets

• Slovenia in danger of tumbling out

Eurovision Semi Final 1
Tuesday 13 May, 20:00
Live on BBC One

Can Sweden take the crown again?

Sweden are the current runaway favourites to win Eurovision 2025 with KAJ's "Bara Bada Bastu", which can be backed at evens on the Betfair Exchange to win the contest. While I see it as a potential winner because it will do really well on the televote, I'm not totally convinced it will top the pile in Saturday night's final.

It's essentially a comedy song about the benefits of the Swedish sauna, and the stage becomes a sauna partway through the performance. One of the three smartly-dressed band members wears silly glasses and plays the accordion in a faintly menacing way, and the song is a real earworm.

But here's the catch. A couple of years ago I didn't fancy Finland's "Cha Cha Cha" by Kaarija to upend Loreen and Sweden in Liverpool, and so it proved. Kaarija nailed the televote, but was brought low by a relatively poor jury vote.

I think that could happen here. "Bara Bada Bastu" is the kind of song that will get an arena jumping, but will that be enough to take the title? I took on Baby Lasagna and Croatia last year to back Nemo and Switzerland for the same reasons, and Nemo scraped the win.

At a prohibitive 2.01/1 on the Exchange, a lay in the Grand Final Winner market seems sensible here. As the semi-finals are televote-only, I can totally see why Sweden are as short as 1.21/5 to win Semi-Final 1.

French fancy is worth considering

It's been a rare thing for the "Big Five" to win Eurovision in the 21st century, Even though Italy, the UK, France, Spain and Germany contribute the most financial backing to our favourite musical extravaganza, they are rarely rewarded with that glittering microphone.

Maneskin won for Italy in 2021, Lena took it for Germany in 2010, but that's it when it comes to the last 25 years. However, in what feels like a weak year, I think "Maman" by Louane could go close.

Louane has a tremendous voice, and the song is dedicated to her late mother, who died of cancer when Louane was just 17. The song is also about her own daughter, who speaks at the end of the song.

Louane has a big following on Instagram, and she really sells this. She debuted the song at a Six Nations rugby match, hovering over the Stade de France on a terrifyingly high platform, but she absolutely nailed the vocals.

This has a genuine chance of winning the Jury Vote ahead of Austria (more on that one later in the week), and if it connects with enough televoters it can at very least make the Top 4 at 2.3411/8.

I think people will latch onto this the closer we get to the Grand Final, so maybe back it at 16.015/1 in the Winner market too.

Always look for lays in the semi-finals

Part of your Eurovision strategy should always be looking at which odds-on shots to qualify from the semi-finals might fall short. Only ten of 15 will make it to Saturday's Grand Final in Basel.

Belgium's Red Sebastian has decided to dress up like one of Snoke's guards from The Last Jedi (niche Star Wars reference klaxon), and "Strobe Lights" is a very Eurovision-by-numbers dance track. I really don't like it (not that personal taste should be your only consideration when making Eurovision bets), and I certainly wouldn't be backing it to qualify as short as 1.330/100.

I feel bad writing this, but in a purely-televote semi-final in which eight or nine qualification spot are probably nailed on, I wonder if a silly dance track like San Marino's "Tutta L'Italia" by Gabry Ponte might edge out Slovenia's "How Much Time Do We Have Left?", which is a far worthier and better song.

Slovenia's Klemen pours his heart out about his wife getting ill and how we never know when death will tap us on the shoulder, but will televoters think that's all a bit heavy, and just vote for a San Marino DJ bouncing around singing about partying?

I feel like Slovenia is really on the borderline, so I'll lay it in the To Qualify market at 1.8810/11. If you prefer to back rather than lay, then plump for a San Marino entry that has drifted out to 2.111/10.

Croatia is friendless in the To Qualify market at 7.06/1, but "Poison Cake" by the eerie Marko Bosnjak is certainly memorable. After the relative success of Ireland's Bambie Thug last year, some countries have clearly decided that budget horror is the way to go.

I don't want to spoil it too much for you, but it's quite an assault on the senses, and next time you're at your favourite café you might reject that slice of Red Velvet.

Now read our latest Premier League previews here!