Eurovision Final Tips: Finns should win but Australia could shock and this 8/5 ACCA may pay

Eurovision Song Contest
Saturday 16 May, 20:00
Live on BBC One

Friday, May 15 - Update: Dazzling Delta the big market mover

When we first released this preview on Monday (see below for original piece), Australia were a healthy 21.020/1 to win the contest, and I also put up Delta Goodrem's "Eclipse" to win the Jury Vote at 3.8514/5. Since Delta's absolutely stunning performance in Thursday night's semi-final, those prices have collapsed to 6.05/1 and 2.01/1 respectively.

As you'd expect from an elite performer, Delta absolutely nailed the vocals and the dramatic piano playing, and the staging comes together with her charisma in a mesmerising package. The sparkle-clad Delta is raised up on a platform for the final few bars, and she absolutely commands the stage.

And that is not the onoly good news for anyone who followed my tips.

As I suggested would be the case earlier this week, Finland went odds-on in the Winner market once people had seen "Leikinheitin" performed live. The live violin (Linda Lampenius and the delegation had to get special dispensation to play the instrument live rather than have it pre-recorded) works so well with singer Pete Parkkonen's moody vocals, and there are some classic Eurovision moments in here.

I still think Finland will win, but I'm glad I've got Australia in the book as a big-priced selection. Even at current odds of 6.05/1 on the Betfair Exchange, Australia are still worth backing.

My tip of Italy to be Top Four Country at 3.052/1 is now odds-on, and a place late in the running order does Sal Da Vinci no harm at all.

It's just so much more fun than France's "Regarde!", and even though the staging is a bit odd (the backing dancers are acting out a wedding day throughout), this can finish above France if Sal can hold it together vocally. He's really likeable, but every rendition is a vocal adventure, so we need him to bring his A-game for the juries.

UK entry as bad as we feared

Let's get a few caveats out of the way. UK entrant Sam Battle (known as Look Mum No Computer) seems a nice chap, and has clearly worked hard on preparing for the contest. A lot of effort has gone into the quirky staging, and the dancers with the fluffy TV heads are fun.

However, "Eins Zwei Drei" is jury poison, and the UK have had nightmarish televote figures with far better songs than this. It's shouty, repetitive and I just can't see who it appeals to.

There's a reason why this is 6/42.50 favourite in the Sportsbook's Last Place market.

It's worth Praying for Polish success

I'll put up Poland in the Top 15 market at 2.47/5. Alicja is an incredible singer, and "Pray" is staged in a really cool and attention-grabbing way, although I always think the poor girl is going to tumble down that slope every time I see it.

Alicja was unfortunate not to get to sing "Empires" at the cancelled contest of 2020, and I can see her soaring vocals doing really well with the juries.

Why this 8/52.60 top five Eurovision final ACCA can pay...

If you're looking for an acca on the Sportsbook, you can back Finland, Australia and Romania to finish in the Top 5 at 8/52.60.

Romania have been given a terrific place in the running order (second-last), and Alexandra Capitanescu has been bringing the house down with "Choke Me". She's vaguely terrifying, but a captivating performer and an amazing vocalist.

It's interesting to see that Greece has taken a backward step. There's more detail on their entry below, but Tuesday's staging just felt way too cluttered, and given the running order you could definitely make a case for backing Romania as Top Balkan at 11/43.75.

Things to keep an eye on in the final

Sweden's Felicia wears a mask, but given her strained vocals on "My System" she might have been better off with a gag. Bulgaria's "Bangaranga" by the ever-energetic Dara will be in your head for days, weeks and maybe months, whether you like it or not.

Lithuania's Lion Ceccah looks like he's escaped from London's South Bank (if you've seen the statue people you'll know what I mean), and Moldova's entry is the vocal equavalent of a three-minute punch in the face, but I've not been able to work out if that's a positive or a negative.

Sometimes in Eurovision you have to seperate songs you really like from an assessment of whether anyone else will think it's any good. Belgium's "Keep Dancing On The Ice" is my guilty pleasure this year, but I have the nagging feeling that Essyla's vocals aren't actually very good, and this is pretty friendless in the market.

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Monday, May 11: Flying Finns can go all the way

Getting to your Winner tip in Eurovision betting can happen in different ways. From the moment I heard it I thought Nemo's "The Code" could win for Switzerland in 2024, and he came through for me at 5.04/1. Sometimes I've needed more persuading, but I got there in the end with Maneskin in 2021 at 4.03/1. My greatest Eurovision regret is chickening out of backing Conchita Wurst in 2014, because I didn't think Eastern Europe would vote for a drag act, even one as superb as that.

Of course, it doesn't always go to plan (I got last year's winner Austria totally wrong), but I've got a really good feeling about Finland this year, and I refuse to be discouraged by the price of 2.3411/8 in the Betfair Exchange Winner market. Yes, that might seem a crazy price in a 35-entry field, but I genuinely believe this might go shorter than evens once people have seen it for the first time in the semi-finals.

Singer Pete Parkkonen and violinist Linda Lampenius make for an incredibly captivating duo on the arresting "Leikinheitin". It's dramatic throughout, our Pete really sells the vocals, and the silver-clad blonde bombshell Linda plays with skill and impact. The section where she strides down the stage playing a solo before staring at him through a flaming frame feels like a classic Eurovision moment. Their chemistry is electrifying, and the song stays with you. If I don't back this as the winner and it lifts the trophy, I'll kick myself.

Greece's "Ferto" by self-taught singer-songwriter Akylas can be backed at 5.59/2, and while the video game-inspired staging is cute and it's a catchy tune, I'm not sure this will nail enough jury votes to win. There's a bizarre change of pace two thirds of the way through, which isn't as clever as it's clearly meant to be.

Denmark is the third favourite at 9.617/2, and while Soren Torpegaard Lund's a great performer and the staging is very Eurovision (a load of people writhing in a cellophane cube), I just don't like this anywhere near as much as I like Finland. I wouldn't put you off backing this in the Top 4 market at 2.0421/20, but it's not a winner for me.

UK's Eurovision gamble will backfire

Eurovision isn't rocket science. Get a great performer, a captivating song and you're in the game. The UK got that combo nailed down when Sam Ryder finished second with "Space Man" in 2022, but since then Mae Muller got a perhaps undeserved pasting by juries and fans alike, Olly Alexander was weighed down by a bad song, and the likeable Remember Monday were stymied by the five-songs-in-one approach of "What The Hell Just Happened?"

This year I have no enthusiasm for "Eins, Zwei, Drei" by Look Mum No Computer. Performer Sam Battle builds his own synthesisers, and that's all very lovely, but this feels like a mess. It's one thing being unconventional and different, but I just can't see how this shouty and jarring track appeals significantly to juries or fans. Sam's clearly talented, but when I compare this to other entries in the contest, it struggles.

The UK are currently 2.767/4 in the Last Place market, and it's hard to disagree.

Forza Italia! Why cheesy Italian entry is my top four tip

With Spain having joined the Eurovision boycott this year, the Big Five has become the Big Four. If you're not aware, every year Spain, the UK, Germany, Italy and France get automatic entry to the Grand Final, because they put the most money into the Eurovision pot.

I'm going to back Italy in the Top Big Four market here at 3.02/1. Before we even get to this year's song, bear in mind that Italy have secured a top-five finish in five of the last seven contests. They been in the top seven in all seven of those editions.

This year's entry "Per Sempre Si" by Sal Da Costa is mega-cheesy, but he's just about likeable enough a performer to make it work. He looks like a wedding singer, and at times sounds like one too, but it's a proper earworm and I think voters will lap this up for its old-school charm.

Germany's "Fire" is a paint-by-numbers "Fuego" rip-off, and while Sarah Engels gives it some proper welly, there's nothing original or exciting here. There's even an obligatory dance break. Last year's German entry - the excellent "Baller" by Abu and Tynna - was light years ahead of this, and that ended up 16th. Bear in mind that Germany have had one top-10 finish in the last 12 contests.

So, that leaves France as the main competition and the favourite in this market at 1.422/5. Monroe is a great singer, but I just don't think "Regarde!" sounds particularly different from a ton of French entries like this in recent years. I'd actually say "Maman" from last year was far more emotional and captivating than this, but that only finished seventh. Monroe hits the operatic sections really hard, but it just all feels a bit underwhelming and cold.

Aussie star can wow the juries

Australia have zoomed to the head of the market in the Jury Vote Winner section at 3.8514/5, and I'm happy to take that price. Delta Goodrem, who has sold over eight million albums and has made a truly remarkable comeback from cancer, is an elite vocalist.

"Eclipse" is a soaring ballad that gives Goodrem the chance to really show off those pipes, and if she performs how she can, this can absolutely top the jury vote. If you want a bigger price in the Winner market, this is a worthy selection at 21.020/1.

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