Eurovision 2025 Semi-Final 2 Tips: Israel to take Thursday win, Ireland to progress

• Israel fair favourites to win SF2 at 1.84/5

• Quirky Ireland entry can survive at 2.1411/10

• Get on Germany in Top 10 market before Thursday's performance

Eurovision Semi-Final 2
Thursday 15 May, 20:00
Live on BBC One

Belgium and Portugal provide differing shocks

It was a nice start for us in the first semi-final, as laying Slovenia at 1.8810/11 in the To Qualify market proved to be the right approach, and San Marino did indeed make it through at their expense at 2.111/10.

I wish I'd been a bit bolder about Belgium - I told you I hated it, but I didn't pull the trigger on the 1.330/100 lay. As that Eurovision-by-numbers bilge crashed out, Portugal's snoozefest somehow reached Saturday's Grand Final, which at a price of 7.06/1 is one of the biggest qualification surprises we've had in a long while.

Right, one semi-final down, one to go...

Israel's controversial inclusion continues to make headlines

As Eurovision fans we'd love to believe that the competition exists in a vacuum, is purely about the music and that there's no political element. Alas, that simply isn't true. Russia are currently banned from the contest following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and rightly or wrongly the Ukrainian victory in the 2022 contest was powered by an overwhelming televote that Kalush Orchestra's "Stefania" simply didn't warrant.

That brings us to the continued participation of Israel in the contest. Several delegations have raised concerns based on current events in Gaza, and in an open letter 72 musicians, lyricists and performers associated with the contest have called for the Israeli broadcaster Kan (and therefore the Israeli entry) to be excluded. The European Broadcasting Union insist there haven't been any formal moves from members to oppose Israel's involvement.

There was a similar backdrop last year, and Eden Golan's "Hurricane" finished fifth overall and second in the televote. This year's performer is Yuval Raphael, who survived the Hamas attack on the Nova music festival, taking refuge in a concrete bomb shelter.

The song "A New Day Will Rise" is stirring, and Raphael sings it beautifully across a range of languages. Given how strongly the televote held up last year, I can't see why it would falter here, not least given her backstory. Obviously there is also a huge amount of anti-Israel sentiment, but it didn't make a dent last year.

The semi-final rankings are purely based on the televotes (juries only get involved in the final), so backing this to win Semi-Final 2 at 1.84/5 seems a sensible play.

Austria a curious and confusing entry

Austria tend to drift towards extremes at Eurovision in terms of performance. Conchita Wurst delivered one of the all-time great Eurovision hits when "Rise Like A Phoenix" stormed to victory in 2014, but the following year as hosts they collected nul points and finished dead last.

Cesar Sampson finished third with "Nobody But You" in 2018, but apart from that there have been slim pickings since Conchita's victory. They have failed to qualify twice, and haven't finished higher than 13th.

This year's effort, "Wasted Love" by JJ, maybe isn't quite as clever as is thinks it is. JJ's voice is undoubtedly beautiful, but the operatic choruses feel a bit too jarring to me, and the switch to techno at the end will be divisive.

This is the second-favourite to win Eurovision at 4.57/2, but while juries will appreciate the gorgeous vocals here, I just don't know if enough televoters will get it. The staging should help - with a storm-tossed ship, a wind machine on full blast and a floating paper boat all adding to the mood. If you're not convinced by Israel's televote potential, this is 7.26/1 to win semi-final 2.

I really want to like "Wasted Love", but I just can't quite get there in terms of seeing it a potential winner, but if it takes down the evens favourite Sweden on Saturday night that will do our portfolio no harm.

Finland's "Ich komme" by Erika Vikman is a blast, and is the second-favourite to win this semi-final at 3.929/10. Blonde bombshell Erika is a force of nature, belts this out with gusto, and ends up standing on a giant microphone that's been raised off the floor. If Leonidas from "300" was a fan of song contests, he'd thump his chest and scream "This. Is. Eurovision!"

Like Laika? Then back Ireland

There came a point when Ireland as a nation gave up on dreary ballads that failed to qualify, and decided "we need to do something a bit nuts." I'll happily admit I underestimated the appeal of Bambie Thug's "Doomsday Blue" last year, as it not only qualified Ireland for the final for the first time since 2018, but it finished a dizzying sixth in the Grand Final.

Ireland have decided to maintain a healthy level of crazy by giving the European music scene the one thing it never knew it needed: a dance track about what became of spacefaring Russian dog Laika. Norwegian performer Emmy whimsically speculates about whether the pooch who was blasted into space in 1957 is still having some kind of party up there.

Emmy has been at this Eurovision lark for longer than you might think, as she tried to qualify to be her native country's entry in 2021. She has over a million followers on TikTok, and has over 750,000 monthly listens on Spotify. Because the semis are televote-only, these things matter.

Ireland are in a group of borderline qualifiers at 2.1411/10, and I think this is quirky enough to have a shot, so back Emmy to qualify. 

Get the Baller rolling and back Germany

Eurovision fans who don't watch anything before the semis will get their first taste of Germany's entry on Thursday, and I think Abor and Tynna's "Baller" is worth backing in the Top 10 market. The siblings stormed to victory in Germany's exhaustingly long selection process, and I've had the song in my head ever since.

It's a dance track that has Tynna (real name Tünde) standing on top of a giant boombox, while Abor (real name Attila) plays a fancy light-up cello. Tynna is a mesmerising performer (she was consistently brilliant in the national contest) and even though "Baller" doesn't show off her vocals, the song is still catchy enough and cool enough to work.

This is trading at 5.14/1 for a Top 10 finish, and I think that's too big.

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