Eurovision Grand Final Tips: Backing Wasted Love is a wasted bet

• Austria can be opposed in Top 3 market

• France's Louane has the quality to win

• Double up Albania Top 10 and France Top 5 at 6/42.50

Eurovision Grand Final
Saturday 17 May, 20:00
Live on BBC One

Semi-finals were full of surprises

In recent years it's been pretty straightforward to at least work out seven, eight or even nine of the ten qualifiers from a semi-final, but we've had some eyebrow-raising results this week. Belgium's Red Sebastian (he bloody loves a bit of red) tumbled out on Tuesday despite odds of 1.330/100 to qualify, while an incredibly bland Portuguese effort made the Grand Final at odds of 7.06/1.

On Thursday Denmark ended a long run of NQs with foam party fodder Hallucination, but Australia's "Milkshake Man" surprisingly turned sour. Alas, our SF2 pick Ireland didn't quite justify our faith, but at least we were right to take on Slovenia at odds-on on Tuesday, so we are slightly in the black going into the Grand Final.

Can Louane upend Swedish charge?

In my first semi-final preview, I laid out the case for backing France to win Eurovision at 16.015/1, and the price has been backed in to 9.28/1 after a really strong semi-final performance (France had qualified anyway) and a very favourable draw for Saturday's Grand Final. Louane will perform third from last, well after a Switzerland song that could potentially hive off some of its votes.

The sand-based staging of "Maman" seems to have been a bit divisive, but I think it works, as long as Louane doesn't turn the wrong way and end up choking halfway through. It's a powerful ballad that's beautifully performed by a singer who already has a well-established following.

The big question this week has been whether anyone could stop Sweden from taking yet another Eurovision victory, and earlier in the week I pressed the lay button at evens. The odds did push out to around 2.35/4 on Thursday night, but have contracted again after a late slot in the running order was confirmed.

I'm sticking to my theory that KAJ's ode to sauna "Bara Bada Bastu" is going to fall into the same trap as Finland's Kaarija and Croatia's Baby Lasagna, who were both hotly tipped in the last couple of years. They were silly crowd-pleasers that could get an arena bouncing, but they didn't quite do enough to nail down the jury vote.

If you read my second semi-final preview you'll see why I fancy Germany to make the Top 10, and I'm feeling a bit better about that bet now after an encouraging performance by Abor and Tynna on Thursday night. If Tynna can nail her vocals (not guaranteed as the poor girl hasn't long recovered from laryngitis), that 5.14/1 shot has a chance, and you can still back it at 4.94/1 at time of writing. 

Austria vulnerable in jury vote and top 3 market

The more I hear Austria's "Wasted Love", the more I think it's too smart for its own good, and that it might not do as well with the juries as the market thinks. It's a ballad that has beautifully delivered verses, but the operatic choruses are too jarring, and the burst of techno at the end is just a bit bizarre.

Singer JJ is clearly very talented, but hasn't been perfect vocally this week, and I'm happy to lay this in the Jury Vote Winner market at 1.834/5. The staging is admittedly excellent (JJ clings to the mast of a storm-tossed boat, and the whole thing is cleverly and dramatically shot), but why are we going to back it to win the jury vote at odds-on when France, Netherlands and Switzerland could all bring it down?

Another way to attack this is to lay it in the Top 3 market at 1.4740/85. It's been placed in the first half, and there are a lot of big hitters to come after that, and if the jury vote isn't as high as expected this could fall off the podium.

What The Hell Just Happened? More like What The Hell Are They Doing?

While I was thrilled that Olly Alexander got the nod for Eurovision last year, I was dismayed by how limited "Dizzy" was as a song, and the grubby staging brought it down even further. Alas, Remember Monday's "What The Hell Just Happened?" feels like another step in the wrong direction, and miles away from what Sam Ryder did in 2022.

Can Remember Monday sing? Yes. Are they fun performers? Yes. However, the song is all over the place, and it isn't either fun enough or weighty enough to land significantly with anyone.

This is 5.49/2 to even finish Top 15, and the fact it's trading a lot shorter to finish Last Place at 3.39/4 tells you a lot. It's sandwiched between Ukraine and Austria in the first half, and will just fade in the collective memory.

Now, join hands everyone and repeat after me: it's not because of Brexit. It's not because continental Europe hates us. It's because we send bad songs. Sam Ryder would've won in most years but Ukraine had a groundswell of support for obvious reasons. And again, it's not because of Brexit.

Albania/France combo can net 6/42.50 winner

One of the sleeper hits of the semi-finals was Albania's "Zjerm" by Shkodra Elektronike. This has been super-popular with Eurovision fans, and it has been given the pimp slot in the running order, the act that closes the show.

As a standalone song it's good, but with Beatrice Gjergji's mesmerising performance and some really clever staging (the drum effect and the red/white stage split are superb), this absolutely soars. Beatrice's long-term musical partner Kole Laca does a very deadpan section in the middle which shouldn't work but does, and the whole package is great.

So, let's dip into the Sportsbook and back Albania to finish Top 10 and France to finish Top 5 at 6/42.50.

Things to watch out for

Iceland have decided to see if there's still a market for Jedward to slip back into, as the Matthiasson brothers jig around in silver hoodies and ski glasses.

Estonia's Tommy Cash dances like he has no bones, uses a (vaguely offensive?) stereotypical Italian accent and fakes an incident where a superfan crashes the stage. "Espresso Macchiato" is quite a bewildering experience from start to finish, and it's been buried at three in the running order.

Finland's Erika Vikman is a proper Eurovision diva, and her performance of "Ich komme" is quite the eye-popping sight. She ends it on top of a giant microphone stand with sparks streaming out of it. It's...memorable.

You can read all of this week's Eurovision previews here!