Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: Best bets for Premier League and EFL final day

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Premier League football tips and predictions

15:00 - Newcastle v Brighton: Alan Shearer's prediction

Alan Shearer: Somehow Newcastle need to stop the rot, I mean, I dread to think the reaction if they get beaten again this weekend.

They have to somehow do something, find a way to get three points this weekend. By all accounts, the Saudis are in Newcastle this week, so whether they're going to be at the game or not, I don't know. I'm going to the game myself. 

I think the vast majority of Newcastle fans are still supporting Eddie, and I agree with that but you have to get a win from somewhere, you can't keep on doing what they're doing.

I think with Bruno back and after that performance last weekend, I think they'll have enough to beat Brighton this weekend.

Brighton's potential situation is amazing. With the form they're in, full of belief, and they've got some really talented players. They've found their form over the last few weeks, and they'll be really tough opposition but coming up to Newcastle, it should be difficult. 

I have no confidence in what I'm seeing, by the way, I think my prediction is more from the heart than it is from the head.

15:00 - Brentford v West Ham: Back low-scoring London derby

Mark Stinchcombe: Brentford's season seems to be running out of steam as it's now six Premier League games without a win. It's seven games if you include their defeat on penalties in the FA Cup quarter-final to this weekend's opponents West Ham. The run leaves the Bees in ninth, two points behind Brighton in sixth, but with remaining games including both Manchester City and Liverpool away, it may be a tough ask to finish in the European places.

West Ham's last gasp winner against Everton kept them two points clear of the relegation zone after Tottenham finally won a Premier League match. With Leeds facing Burnley on Friday night, it looks like it could be a three-way shoot out for relegation along with Nottingham Forest.

Goals have been at a bit of premium for both sides so I'm surprised to see Over 2.5 goals is the overwhelming favourite at just 4/7. Brentford have failed to score in four in of their last eight and seven of West Ham's last 10 games have seen Under 2.5 goals. Therefore backing Under 3.0 Asian goals is the way to play this. The only way the bet will lose is if there are four or more goals.

15:00 - Wolves v Sunderland: Back Black Cats to win to nil

The Opta Stat: 

Wolves have lost all four of their Premier League games against promoted sides this season - only four teams have ever lost five in a single campaign: Ipswich Town (1994-95), Sunderland (2002-03), Leicester City and Southampton (both 2022-23). Wolves have failed to score in a league-high 18 different Premier League games this season.

17:30 - Arsenal v Fulham: 5/2 Gunners to edge it and take another step

Dave Tindall: This would have been a major test for Arsenal had the game been at Craven Cotttage as Fulham boast 10 wins there this season. Away from home the visitors' tally of three-pointers is just four and only three teams have fewer road wins.

But Fulham can't just be dismissed as dodgy on their travels. They haven't won any of their last three away games but forced 0-0 draws in two of them - at Nottingham Forest and Brentford.

Let's now add to the mix the fact that Arsenal haven't scored more than once in any of their last eight games in all competitions. Throw in the usual angst that resonates in the Emirates when things aren't going swimmingly and all the ingredients are there for a tight contest.

The 1-0 at 11/2 must be a live runner given that three of Arsenal's last six games have in all comps have been by that scoreline. But with 2-1 also realistic, I'll head to the Winning Margin market and back Arsenal to to win by exactly 1 goal at 5/2.

Starting with the Gunners' 1-0 win at Craven Cottage in October, eight of Fulham's last 11 Premier League defeats have been by that minimum one-goal margin. Few sides roll them over easily.

EFL tips and predictions - final day

15:00 Championship - Derby v Sheff Utd: Rams to claim sixth

Jack Critchley: Derby's home form has been superb during 2026, winning each of their last six at Pride Park. They have very few injury concerns, and the emergence of Jaydon Banel gives them another option in forward areas.

They've netted 2+ in four of their last six here and should be able to take advantage of Sheffield United's defensive issues. The Blades have conceded six goals across their last two games, and have taken just two points when visiting sides that are currently positioned inside the top half.

Jones Knows Notebook: Back final day Championship treble

Lewis Jones: There's always a little something different about the final day of the Championship season. The stakes are clear, the narratives are neatly tied up or hanging by a thread, and, crucially for us punters, the goals tend to flow.

If you're scanning the markets on Saturday and wondering where the value might lie, final day goals markets should be front of your mind. The numbers back it up.

Across the last 10 seasons, the final round of fixtures in the Championship has averaged 3.07 goals per game - comfortably the highest of any matchday in the entire campaign. That's not a quirk. That's a sustainable trend that can be turned into goals-based betting angles.

15:00 L1 - Stevenage v Wigan: Back bet builder at 3/1

Alan Dudman: Wigan's 0-1 loss last Saturday will see them waddle in down in the lower reaches of League One, and a loss to left Wimbledon to fight for another day in the division, and with nothing to play for with the Latics, Stevenage should justify their match odds.

The hosts are skinny as expected at 4/7 as a win ensures a play-off spot, but they need to win as Luton and Plymouth are a point and two points behind.

Excluding the curtailed 2019-20 season, Stevenage have won their final game in five of their last six league seasons (D1) since a 0-1 defeat to Wycombe in 2017-18, and backing them at home this term has been a route to riches with 13 victories - right on par with Bolton and Stockport.

European football tips and predictions

17:30 Bundesliga - Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig: Back Diomande to shine

Kevin Hatchard: Leipzig have developed a reputation for developing great young talent before selling it on for big money, and the latest example is Ivory Coast winger Yan Diomande. The 19-year-old already has 13 goals in all competitions, 12 of which were scored in the Bundesliga. He is the second-youngest player in Bundesliga history to net a hat-trick. He is also a regular source of assists, and produced one of the passes of the season to tee up Ridle Baku in last weekend's win over Union Berlin.

Diomande is 11/10 on the Sportsbook to score or assist at any time against a Bayer Leverkusen team that's failing to regularly convince under coach Kasper Hjulmand. Although Die Werkself won a Rhineland derby 2-1 at Köln last weekend, they played poorly and were boosted by a very soft penalty.

Leverkusen have won just four of their last 10 league games, and they've conceded 13 goals across the last seven matchdays. Against a strong Leipzig team, I think they'll conceded goals, and I'll back Diomande to be on the scoresheet.

Now read Alan Shearer on 'pathetic' refereeing in the Champions League