Jones Knows Notebook: History tells us to back a final day Championship goal bonanza at 3/1

Final day vibes should see goals

There's always a little something different about the final day of the Championship season. The stakes are clear, the narratives are neatly tied up or hanging by a thread, and, crucially for us punters, the goals tend to flow.

If you're scanning the markets on Saturday and wondering where the value might lie, final day goals markets should be front of your mind. The numbers back it up.

Across the last 10 seasons, the final round of fixtures in the Championship has averaged 3.07 goals per game - comfortably the highest of any matchday in the entire campaign. That's not a quirk. That's a sustainable trend that can be turned into goals-based betting angles.

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What is driving this final day goal rush?

First, motivation splits the league into very distinct camps. You've got teams chasing promotion who simply have to win.

There's no room for cagey, low-event football. Goal difference can be decisive, so even a 2-0 lead isn't a signal to shut up shop, it's a platform to push on. On the flip side, their opponents are often either already safe or already down, which creates a mismatch in urgency that opens games up.

Then there's the psychological angle. After 45 games of grind, structure and often risk-averse setups, especially in the Championship, the final day brings a release.

The weather is usually kinder, the atmosphere lighter and managers are more inclined to trust their players to "go and enjoy it." That freedom translates into more expansive football, higher defensive lines and more chances at both ends.

From a betting angle, this all points in a clear direction. Overs.

The baseline expectation is simply higher than at any other point in the season for goals and the market doesn't always fully account for this trend.

It's not about blindly backing goals in every fixture but boxing clever with the right selections can hopefully unearth some juicy value.

Here's three games that look ripe for an over 2.5 goals play.

Watford vs Coventry: Over 2.5 goals

Only one place to start when it comes to goals in the Championship and that's with the champions. There's been 138 goals in Coventry matches this season - a cool 3.06 per 90 average. Frank Lampard will want his boys to go out with a bang.

Ipswich vs QPR: Over 2.5 goals

If you hand pick a team to face on the final day where a win gets you promotion, QPR would be near the top of that list. Nothing to play for, uncertainty rife amongst much of the playing staff and a defence which has leaked goals all season.

Only Sheffield Wednesday have conceded more goals this season than QPR (70) and Ipswich have scored in all of their last 13 home games, averaging 1.95 goals per 90.

Portsmouth vs Birmingham: Over 2.5 goals

It will be party time at Fratton Park where Portsmouth's late season form catapulted them away from relegation. Taking 12 points from their last 15 available means they can relax on the final day which should in turn lead to an open and expansive game with an opposition who are marooned in mid-table.

Read all the promotion permutations and latest prices for the final day here!