Premier League 2026/27 Season Cheat Sheet: Outright best bets

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Premier League 2026/27 Outright Tips

Premier League 10 Year Trends: Back Arsenal for successful title defence

Dave Tindall: The trends say Arsenal are deserved favourites. Manchester City are a clear second but there's quite a gap from them to the Gunners. City lose ground for not scoring 80 points last season, only managing 37 points in the second half of that campaign and having a new manager. Also, second favourites have a poor record.

It's interesting to note that Manchester United are way clear of Liverpool in third. United thrived under Michael Carrick last season while Liverpool scored a paltry 60 points, just 27 of those coming from MD 20-38. The Merseysiders are hit further for shipping 53 goals last term and emerging with a Goal Difference of only +10.

Despite being third favourites, the warning signs are there that Liverpool could struggle. So let's turn this into some bets. With Arsenal so far clear, they're the win bet at 6/4.

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Premier League Season Finishes: Back Forest for top six

Paul Higham: Preference for a value bet for top six goes with Forest on the back of hiring Oliver Glasner, who performed wonders at Crystal Palace with three trophies and a record Premier League points haul all in just over two seasons in charge.

He has a better squad at the City Ground, with Forest better than their 16th last season - cycling through four managers was a big reason for that finish. They reached the Europa League semis so with proven winner Glasner on board Forest still have enough quality to get back up the right end of the table.

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Premier League Golden Boot: Back Chelsea star to strike

Kevin Hatchard: Chelsea's Brazilian forward missed out on the each-way spots by a single goal last term, and there's a lot to recommend him this season. Despite scoring 15 times in the Premier League, Joao Pedro wasn't selected for the Brazil World Cup squad, and Carlo Ancelotti sheepishly admitted in a roundabout way that he had been sacrificed on the altar of Neymar.

Joao Pedro had a summer off, has a point to prove and seems to have a manager who trusts him in Xabi Alonso. Chelsea aren't in Europe, so Joao Pedro should be able to stay fresh. At 16/1 I think he's an attractive bet here.

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Premier League Relegation: Back Tigers to hit rock bottom

Jimmy The Punt: There's a couple of glaring issues with the Tigers.  The first is their squad. Owner Acun Ilıcalı has voiced his frustration this summer over the clubs inability to tempt the players they have on their wishlist, not for lack of funds though. 

So far, their most expensive signing is goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis from Olympiacos. Matt Targett and Jack Butland are the only acquisitions to date with Premier League experience. 

The other issue is the sheer amount of goals they conceded last season, only Leicester (23rd), Sheffield Wednesday (24th) and QPR (15th) conceded more then Hull (66). And the Tigers had an expected-goals-against (xGA) of 80.1 which was the second highest total in the division.

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Premier League 1-20 Predictions: Back Blues for top 2

Lewis jones: No European football commitments is an advantage for Chelsea that shouldn't be underplayed.

History tells us that when a traditional "big six" team have a season without playing in Europe, their points tally increase on average by 18.5 points. Manchester United last season are a great example of this spike in performance, finishing the season with 29 more points than their efforts in the 24/25 campaign.

In two previous seasons without European football, Chelsea improved their points tally by 43 points in the 16/17 season and 19 in the 22/23 campaign.

Chelsea have appointed a manager in Xabi Alonso with a proper, recognisable football philosophy rather than another coach who will simply try to get the best out of the existing squad. His work at Bayer Leverkusen shows the real Alonso and he can be forgiven for being swallowed up by the Real Madrid circus.

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Read Mike Norman's Mega Guide to the Premier League

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Premier League Handicap Winner: Back the Bees

Mark Stinchcombe: This is a fascinating market to try and attack. Each team is given a set amount of points in an attempt to level the playing field and then their actual points at the end of the season are added to get an overall total. For example, Arsenal are rated as the best team in the league so are given zero point head start where as Hull City are rated the worst team so are given a +52 point head start.

This market was easily won by Sunderland last season with a +52 start and the season before by Nottingham Forest. The pattern here is clubs punching above their weight with, crucially, no European distractions.

The highest team to finish in the league last season who didn't qualify for Europe was Brentford and that seems a good approach to this market. Last season they were touted for relegation at just 3/1 and were given a +38 start. They went on to get 53 points with an overall tally of 91 points to come third and finish in the places. Despite that, they are still being given a +29 start this season and, with managher Keith Andrews now having a full season under his belt, they can push on.

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Forget Man Utd: Back 10/3 for Chelsea and Spurs to finish above them

Lewis Jones: Manchester United are back in the Champions League and their fixture list gets more complicated. There will be Champions League travel, Champions League preparation, Champions League recovery.

Remember, outright markets are heavily influenced by the past. They have to be. But this time of the season is a great spot for us as punters to asses what has changed and how can we profit from the markets inefficiencies by getting ahead of curve.

For Chelsea, the answer is Alonso and a season without Europe. For Spurs, it's De Zerbi, defensive improvement and a season without Europe. For United, it's Champions League football, increased expectations and the challenge of proving that Carrick's extraordinary second-half run is sustainable over 38 games.

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Arsenal v Coventry: Greek star an attractive price

The time for talking is done, it's now time for action. You've read all of our Premier League antepost previews so it' now time for Friday night's curtain raiser as champions Arsenal host newly-promoted Coventry. Kevin Hatchard previews the game.

Kev Hatchard: Christos Tzolis was an assist machine at his previous side Club Brugge, and he has already racked up two assists for Arsenal in his very first game.

He takes excellent set pieces (let's see if he gets the chance if Rice and Saka start), but he also crosses beautifully and times his forward passes well, just as he did to set up Martin Odegaard in Cardiff.

Tzolis is 6/42.50 to produce an assist here, and that feels like an attractive price.

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