Premier League Top 5 Finish: Current situation and possible permutations with two to play

• Read our 'at a glance' guide to the Top 5 Finish race

• Current state of play, remaining games and betting odds

• Teams to play index and possible permutations summary

• Betfair Safe Sub has launched. Get full details here

*First Published Monday 21 April

(will be updated after each game involving a top five finish contender)

Latest results and Top 5 Finish odds movements

- 11 May:  Nottm Forest 2-2 Leicester:  Forest drop to seventh and drift to 9/25.50

- 11 May:  Newcastle 2-0 Chelsea:  Magpies move up to third and are now 1/501.02

- 10 May:  Bournemouth 0-1 Aston Villa:  Villa move up to sixth and shorten to 8/52.60

- 10 May:  Southampton 0-0 Man City:  City remain third despite failing to win, now 1/201.05

- 5 May:  Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottm Forest.  Forest remain sixth and drift to 8/52.60

- 4 May:  Chelsea 3-1 Liverpool.  Chelsea within one point of City and now 1/51.20. Newcastle out to 1/41.25

- 4 May:  Brighton 1-1 Newcastle.  Newcastle remain fourth before Chelsea host Liverpool

- 3 May:  Aston Villa 1-0 Fulham. Villa move level with Chelsea & Forest on 60 points and now 2/13.00

- 2 May:  Man City 1-0 Wolves.  City move up to third and shorten to 1/161.06 from 1/101.10

- 1 May:  Nottm Forest 0-2 Brentford.  Forest remain sixth and drift from 4/111.36 to 4/51.80

- 26 Apr:  Newcastle 3-0 Ipswich.  Newcastle move up to third and shorten to 2/91.22. Chelsea now 8/131.61

- 26 Apr:  Chelsea 1-0 Everton.  Chelsea move up to fourth in table before Newcastle play at 3pm

- 22 Apr:  Man City 2-1 Aston Villa.  City move up to third and go from 1/121.08 to 1/331.03. Villa out to 4/15.00

- 21 Apr:  Tottenham 1-2 Nottm Forest.  Forest move up to third and go from 5/61.84 to 1/31.33

Top 5 Finish the Premier League's end-of-season saviour

The destination of this season's Premier League title has been a foregone conclusion since the start of the year, and the three relegation places have all been decided with five games of the season to go. So just as a reminder, Liverpool will be crowned champions this season and Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton - the three newly-promoted clubs - will all be going straight back down to the Championship.

So thank goodness then that the people at Premier League towers who have to put forward the games to be shown live on TV each weekend have been saved by without doubt the best Top 5 Finish race we've ever had.

And the reason it's the best top five finish race the Premier League has ever seen is because never before has finishing fifth in the table guaranteed you a place in next season's Champions League, as it will this campaign.

Liverpool and Arsenal will almost certainly finish in the top five this season (it will take a miracle for the Gunners not to finish top five) meaning just four points separate the next five clubs chasing the three remaining places.

As It Stands

Newcastle are in the driving seat both in terms of league positions and the betting odds following their vital 2-0 win over Chelsea on Sunday afternoon. The Magpies were 5/61.84 for a Top 5 Finish when Betfair first introduced the market but they're now just 1/501.02 safe in the knowledge that just one more win will see them qualify for next season's Champions League (see Permutations section further down).

Man City opened up at 1/91.11 to finish in the top five but they're now 1/201.05 and sit fourth in the table despite a disappointing 0-0 draw at rock bottom Southampton on Saturday afternoon.

Chelsea are the third team most fancied to claim one of the lucrative Champions League slots and they can be backed at 4/91.44 to finish in the top five despite their 2-0 defeat to Newcastle.

According to the current betting odds, Nottm Forest and Aston Villa will be the clubs that will miss out on the Champions League qualifying places.

Forest could have moved up to fifth had they beat East Midlands rivals Leicester, but a 2-2 draw on Sunday afternoon has them seventh in the table and available to back at 9/25.50. Villa clinched a vital three points on the south coast with a 1-0 win at Bournemouth and they're now 8/52.60 to finish in the top five.

Key:  GP = Games Played, Pts = Points, GD = Goal Difference

Remaining Fixtures for all Five Teams

- Home fixtures in bold
- (League position of opponents in brackets)
- Teams to play index = average league position of teams still to play

Newcastle United - 3rd

Six-game form:  ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ 🤝 ✅

- Arsenal (2)
- Everton (13)

Teams to play index:  7.5

Manchester City - 4th

Six-game form:   🤝 ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ 🤝

- Bournemouth (10)
- Fulham (11)

Teams to play index:  10.5

Chelsea - 5th

Six-game form:  🤝 🤝 ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

- Manchester United (16)
- Nottingham Forest (6)

Teams to play index:  11.0

Aston Villa - 6th

Six-game form:  ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

- Tottenham (17)
- Manchester United (16)

Teams to play index:  16.5

Nottingham Forest - 7th

Six-game form:  ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ 🤝 🤝

- West Ham (15)
- Chelsea (5)

Teams to play index:  10.0

Permutations

Because of their much superior goal difference to Aston Villa, Newcastle effectively need to win just one of their remaining two games to finish in the top five. One win will take them to 69 points meaning at least two of the other four clubs will finish below them, one being Aston Villa, the other one being Nottingham Forest or Chelsea who play each other on the final day of the season meaning both cannot overtake the Magpies.

Manchester City require four points from their final two games to guarantee a top five finish. This is because four points will take them to 69, meaning Nottingham Forest will finish below them and so too will Aston Villa because of their much inferior goal difference.

Three points for the Citizens will also clinch a top five finish if Aston Villa fail to win their two remaining games or if there isn't a winner in the Nottm Forest v Chelsea game on the final day of the season.

Chelsea are on the same points as Aston Villa but because of their superior goal difference they only need to match the points tally that Villa get in their final two games to stay above them. If they do that and beat Nottm Forest on the final day of the season then the Blues will secure a top five finish.

If Aston Villa win their final two games they will definitely finish above either Chelsea or Nottm Forest, but they would require Newcastle to take no more than two points or Man City to take no more than three points to finish above one of those two teams.

Nottm Forest effectively need to win both of their remaining games to have a chance of finishing in the top five. If they do so then they will definitely finish above Chelsea but they would require one of Newcastle, Man City or Aston Villa to drop enough points to enable them to overtake one of those three teams.

Now read more Premier League tips and previews here.