Neither Cardiff nor Burnley have made a positive start to the Premier League season and the two strugglers go head-to-head on Super Sunday in the Welsh capital. Mark O'Haire previews the encounter and picks out his best bets...
"Burnley boast a draw-heavy W2-D6-L3 road record at bottom-six sides since returning to the top-tier under Sean Dyche and have never tasted success on their travels at a promoted club in the Premier League era."
Cardiff v Burnley
Sunday September 30, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports
Cardiff still searching for first win
Cardiff manager Neil Warnock said he'd never seen his side's heads go down in a game, quite like last Saturday's chastening 5-0 home defeat to record-breaking champions Manchester City. The Bluebirds initially battled enthusiastically but were three goals down at half-time and left to chase City's shadows.
Warnock's charges find themselves second from bottom and winless in seven games across all competitions. You have to go back to 1964 for the last season in which Cardiff failed to win any of their opening eight encounters and City should relish the opportunity here having recently faced City, Chelsea and Arsenal.
Right-back Lee Peltier picked up an injury last weekend and will need to be replaced here. Peltier was replaced by Jazz Richards but centre-back by trade, Bruno Ecuele Manga, has filled the breach numerous times already this term and could revert back to full-back. Elsewhere, Aron Gunnarsson is still sidelined.
Burnley "back to what they're all about"
Burnley boss Sean Dyche said his side were "back to what they're all about" after they moved off the foot of the Premier League with an emphatic 4-0 win over Bournemouth at Turf Moor. The Clarets were 2-0 up by half-time through Matej Vydra and Aaron Lennon before an Ashley Barnes double settled matters.
Dyche had spoken of "lifting the fog" in the wake of Burnley's defeat at Wolves that meant the club had made their worst start to a top-flight season since 1927. This determined display, following a dispiriting start to the season, saw the Lancastrians reclaim their hard-to-beat quality and will have lifted spirits.
Vydra marked his first Premier League start for Burnley with an impressive performance up top and should keep his place. Steven Defour is back in contention after almost nine months out due to injury but the game could come too soon for Robbie Brady. Ben Gibson is a confirmed absentee.
Honours even in Welsh capital
Sunday marks the first top-flight meeting between Cardiff and Burnley since 1962 and it's a fixture that the Bluebirds have traditionally had the upper-hand in. The hosts are unbeaten in 13 (W4-D9-L0) meetings with the Clarets, and haven't lost at home to the visitors since 2000 (W8-D3-L0).
It's been a tough introduction to Premier League life under Neil Warnock for Cardiff [2.68] with three of the Big Six in opposition in September; the Bluebirds have held both Newcastle and Huddersfield to goalless draws but are still searching for their first league triumph of the new term.
Burnley [3.20] boast a draw-heavy W2-D6-L3 road record at bottom-six sides since returning to the top-tier under Sean Dyche and have never tasted success on their travels at a promoted club in the Premier League era. Five of their past seven away at a Premier League newcomer has ended all-square and a repeat appeals at [3.15].
Super Sunday showdown unlikely to excite
Only Fulham (70) have conceded more shots from inside the penalty area than Cardiff (67) or Burnley (69) across the opening six rounds of action, while no Premier League side has faced more shots on-target than these two with the Bluebirds allowing 39 efforts on-target and the Clarets a divisional-high 42.
There's an intriguing symmetry between the two teams in terms of style and system, with both preferring a more rugged and traditional approach and there's a possibility the similarly-matched sides could cancel each other out at the Cardiff City Stadium on Sunday.
Neither team boast outstanding quality in the final-third and although they've collected paid out for Over 2.5 Goals [2.56] punters in half of their combined 12 outings, three of Cardiff's high-scoring encounters came against Big Six clubs, with two of Burnley's three arriving in the aftermath of a Europa League tie.
With few goals anticipated and Under 2.5 Goals a big runner, we can chuck in our earlier recommendation on the match ending as a draw, as well as a goalless first-half into the equation for a bulbous offering of over 4/1 with Betfair Sportsbook's Same Game Multi.
We'll be paid out should the match feature no first-half goals and end either 0-0 or 1-1 in the Welsh capital.
Mark's 2018/19 Profit/Loss
Staked: 30.00 pts
Returned: 37.30 pts
P/L: +7.30 pts
Back the draw @ [3.15] in Cardiff v Burnley