We're heading to Portugal, and Kev's backing the top tier's bottom team to cause an upset.
"Aves won at Maritimo and drew at Famalicao just before the hiatus, and Tondela have won just once in their last 12 league matches."
Lay Tondela at 1.758/11
Visitors to spring a surprise
Tondela v Aves
Thursday 11 June, 21:15
Bayern Munich did the winning part, as they almost always do, but their 2-1 DFB Cup semi-final victory over Eintracht Frankfurt left us a goal short. Robert Lewandowski, of all people, missed a couple of decent half-chances on the break in the closing stages, so he's in our bad books for now.
We'll leave the comfy confines of Germany, and head to Portugal. The Primeira Liga is back underway, and has thrown up some shock scorelines. I suspect we'll see another surprise tonight, as the bottom side Aves visit Tondela.
Aves have collected just 13 points all season, and are 12 points adrift of safety. They have lost 20 of their 25 matches in the top flight, so you can see why they are outsiders for tonight's game. However, if you look at their away form before the hiatus, you see that they won 2-1 at Maritimo, and drew 1-1 at Famalicao. They also ran Benfica really close in a 2-1 defeat, only losing to a goal in the 89th minute.
Tondela aren't exactly a formidable foe. They have won just one of their last 12 matches in the league, and they haven't won a home game since early November. To all intents and purposes, Aves are already down, so all of the pressure is heaped on the shoulders of the Tondela players. They kicked off the restart with a goalless draw at Benfica, so that is something to build on.
Given the absence of fans, and Tondela's failure to secure wins in 2020, I think there is scope here to back an upset. Tondela seem too short to me at 1.758/11 so I'll lay them.