England v Croatia: Back Three Lions to edge opener at 5/2

Click here for England v Croatia odds
Wednesday, 21:00
Live on ITV1 & ITVX

England's turn at last

A total of 42 teams would have seen action in this World Cup before England finally get their go in Dallas on Wednesday. That's plenty to digest for Thomas Tuchel but the only focus this week has been working out which XI will go into battle against Croatia and how they can break them down.

England have had some tough times against the Croatians. In 2007 a 3-2 defeat at Wembley crushed England's hopes of reaching Euro 2008. And at the 2018 World Cup in Russia, Croatia had England's number again in the semi-finals, coming from 1-0 down to win 2-1 in extra-time. Last time the teams met at a major tournament, however, England won 1-0 at the delayed Euro 2020.

England go into this World Cup on the back of a perfect qualifying campaign while friendly wins over New Zealand (1-0) and Costa Rica (3-0) since they arrived in the USA have kept the momentum going forward.

Before the game, England are clear third favourites to win the World Cup at 7/18.00 behind France and Spain.

Croatia have World Cup record to envy

Here's a stat to put Croatia's recent World Cup record into context: starting from 2018 they've played more semi-finals in the tournament than Spain have in their entire history.

Beaten finalists in 2018 (lost 4-2 to France), Croatia showed that was no one off by again reaching the last four in 2022 (lost 3-0 to winners Argentina) after beating Brazil on penalties in the quarter-finals.

Given that they won the third-place play-off against Morocco, Croatia have now finished second and third in the last two World Cups. That is some pedigree.

England clear favourites to come out on top

With Ghana and Panama also in opposition, if there's a winner in Dallas on Wednesday night, they will be huge favourites to top Group L.

England won their group in 2022 but that was the first time they'd finished at the summit since 2006. Croatia have only come out on top once (2018) in their six World Cups.

England are just 1/31.33 to win Group L, while Croatia are 7/24.50.

The match odds are much tighter than that for Wednesday's clash in Dallas where temperatures will be kept comfortable due to the aircon in the stadium which has a retractable roof.

England are 4/61.67 for the win, with Croatia 4/15.00 and The Draw 27/103.70.

When are England's Group L Games?

See below for the dates and times of Englands matches in the group stage of the tournament:

Three Lions strong at the back

The debate about Tuchel's team and squad often revolves around who will get the No.10 spot and help Harry Kane out with the goal count.

Which is fair enough but Tuchel's success so far with England has been built on being strong at the back.

They've kept 12 clean sheets out of 14 since the German took over and never conceded once in a game not held on English soil.

Croatia will obviously pose more of a threat than New Zealand and Costa Rica but England are hard to breach and that's a good starting point.

England to win to nil is 13/82.63 and is a decent enough upgrade on the 4/61.67 for any victory.

England to claim narrow win

England beat Iran 6-2 in their Qatar opener four years ago but that won't be happening again.

The previous two times they kicked off with a victory, the Three Lions beat Tunisia 2-1 (2018) and Paraguay 1-0 (2006).

Long-term England fans will also recall the edgy, often dour and disappointing opening 1-1s against the Republic of Ireland (1990), Sweden (2002) and USA (2010).

In short, that Iran result is an outlier. More often than not, England don't set the world alight first time out.

But while Croatia's record in this tournament is superb, it's very rare for a nation to piece together three great World Cups.

And with Luka Modric (who played in that 3-2 win in 2007) now 40, Tuchel's men should have the legs to diminish his influence. They've also shown they can protect a lead.

And that takes me to an England victory. Just.

Therefore, head to the Winning Margin market and back England to win by exactly 1 goal at 12/53.40.

Back goalkeeper foul

For Bet Builders, Kane to Score A Header in an England win pays 17/118.00. That landed against New Zealand in their first World Cup warm-up game.

But for a second bet, I'll keep it simple and back Any Goalkeeper to be fouled at 5/42.25.

England's set-piece takers are basically Arsenal's set-piece takers - Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka and Noni Madueke. And we all know how well they deliver a ball and the chaos it causes in the box. On the subject of Saka and Madueke, you can read Alan Shearer's preview of this match here.

It's hard to get definitive stats but, at the other end, Jordan Pickford has drawn more fouls than any other goalkeeper in Premier League history. Also, as a guide, the 2022 World Cup winning goalkeeper, Emi Martinez, drew 17 fouls in 32 Premier League matches with Aston Villa last season.

An infringement on Pickford is the bonus part of the bet really as an England foul on Croatia goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic is the most likely way for this one to land.

And, of course, set-pieces aren't the only way for this bet to deliver a winner. Pickford sprinting from his goal and getting clattered or a foot up as a 'keeper kicks clear are other ways that spring to mind.

Notable winners on Betting.Betfair so far at the 2026 World Cup...

- Mark Stinchcombe's stunning 38/139.00 Bet Builder in South Korea v Czechia
- Paul Higham's 9/25.50 Bet Builder in Mexico's MD1 defeat of South Africa
- Paul also tipped 13/53.60 (Canada v Bosnia) & 15/82.88 (Brazil v Morocco) draws
- A 6/17.00 winning ACCA for Mark on Sunday at the World Cup
- Andy Robson's 9/110.00 five-leg ACCA as Germany wallop Curacao

Now get more tips for England v Croatia