Chelsea suffered a rare-blip at Sheffield United on Saturday but Paul Robinson expects them to bounce back with a vengeance against Norwich on Tuesday.
That means that they have to win by three goals or more – something which they have already achieved five times this season.
Chelsea v Norwich
Tuesday 14 July, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports
Champions League place still not in the bag
Frank Lampard will have been very disappointed with his players after their 3-0 defeat at Bramall Lane, but with Leicester slipping-up at Bournemouth, too much damage wasn't done.
The manager will want a reaction from his team though, and they couldn't ask for an easier fixture than Norwich at home. They need to keep their foot on the gas if they want to be in the Champions League next season, and a win here would all but secure it.
I expect a few changes from the side that lost to Sheffield United, with Marcos Alonso, Olivier Giroud and Ruben Loftus-Cheek all strong candidates to start here.
Farke's run coming to an end
It all looked so promising for Norwich back in mid-September. They had just defeated Man City to win their second match in their first five games back in the Premier League, and Teemu Pukki was scoring for fun.
Fast-forward 10 months and the Canaries have been relegated with three games still to play, they have won just three more times and Pukki has scored only five more goals.
Daniel Farke's job is certainly in danger, as while he was the manager to lead them to promotion, his reputation is diminishing week-on-week. He will want his team to bow out on a high, but it's hard to see that happening.
Blues to cruise to victory
The Blues are the [1.15] favourites on the Betfair Exchange, with the draw at [10.0] and a Norwich win at [24.0].
Given the price of the visitors it's always worth considering whether they can cause an upset, but they just aren't scoring enough goals. They have netted just once in six league games back, and they were dreadful against West Ham on Saturday.
Chelsea fired a rare blank against the Blades, but it's almost impossible to believe that they won't score at least a couple against the worst defence in the league - 67 conceded in 35 outings.
That brings the handicap markets into play, and Chelsea -2 is trading at around the [2.12] mark. That means that they have to win by three goals or more - something which they have already achieved five times this season. The visitors meanwhile have been beaten by three or more on seven occasions.
Hard to argue against goals
Goals are expected at the Bridge, with Over 2.5 available to back at [1.4], while Under 2.5 is on offer at [3.4].
The hosts don't have the best defence in the world - in fact, they have the worst defensive record out of the current top 10.
That being said, Norwich just don't look like scoring at present, and while I expect Chelsea to rack up a few goals, I certainly won't be rushing to back Overs at [1.4].
If you want to risk one more goal, you can get involved with Over 3.5 at [2.0], but I'd rather just stick to Chelsea -2 at a slightly bigger price.
Key Opta Stat
Norwich have failed to score in a league-high 17 Premier League games this season, with 11 of these coming away from home (also a league-high). The Canaries have netted just 26 Premier League goals, and just seven away from home this season - both league-low figures.
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2019/20 P/L (1pt each bet)
Back Chelsea -2 @ [2.12]