League Two Betting: Back Hatters to beat Glovers

Ian Lamont
02 March 2017

Nathan Jones would like to point his Luton players to a victory and not another draw

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Nathan Jones' men simply have more quality than Yeovil, says Ian Lamont, who also believes that Blackpool are too short against an in-form Morecambe...

"Accrington will need all their options in front of goal to actually beat Barnet. Opta point out that the Bees have generated a remarkable statistic of scoring in each of their past 26 away games, the longest current run in the Football League."

Yeovil Town 3.814/5 v Luton Town 2.26/5; the draw 3.45

Picking the bones out of a team's form and their statistics can be tricky, but there is enough in those two aspects to suggest that Luton are good value to win at Huish Park this weekend.

Backing the Hatters could seem a little risky to those who might point to the fact they have drawn their last three away games 1-1, or that they have conceded once in each of their last five away, as Opta point out. They seem to have a penchant for drawing 1-1 at present, given that was the result of their home game with Plymouth last Saturday.

However, on the plus side, Nathan Jones' men are unbeaten in five league matches and, striving for automatic promotion, have shown plenty of quality this season. Danny Hylton, add Opta, has been involved with 20 League Two goals (scored 15 with five assists), at least eight more than any other Hatters player. In all competitions, he has netted 20, amazingly - for his talent - the first time he has done so in his career.

The athletic Isaac Vassell and his team-mates can start to make up the difference by putting Wednesday's Checkatrade Trophy semi-final defeat to Oxford behind them and focus on narrowing the gap to the top three. Jones says Oxford's late winner broke his heart, so it won't be easy.

Centre-backs Alan Sheehan and Johnny Mullins are likely to find Yeovil's attackers easier to dominate than Oxford's. Yeovil might look a stubborn outfit, based on drawing five of their past six matches, but they have gone three games without scoring and have netted the fewest goals in League Two this season, note Opta.

Glovers' boss Darren Way was full of praise for defender Bevis Mugabi, who kept a rampant Mansfield at bay in midweek. His luck might well run out against Luton.

Recommended Bet
Back Luton @ 2.26/5

Accrington 2.245/4 v Barnet 3.55/2; the draw 3.613/5

John Coleman's side might not have had the best of seasons, but they are suddenly coming into some decent form, scoring plenty of goals, which gives them every chance of defeating a side who are still learning about their new manager.

Accrington are unbeaten in five games at home, point out Opta. In their last six matches overall, they have scored twice four times, four times once and drawn just one blank - 12 goals in all. They might have only won twice in that time, but their application cannot be questioned.

Whether it is Shay McCartan, Billy Kee or defender Omar Beckles, they seem to have plenty fo variety in their goalscorers.

They are likely to need as many options in front of goal as possible to actually win this, because Barnet, Opta point out, have generated a remarkable statistic of scoring in each of their past 26 away games, the longest current run in the Football League.

New boss Kevin Nugent's main problem, however, is Barnet's over-reliance on one player to score. Opta point out that John Akinde generates the brilliant statistic - for him - of scoring 49% of the Bees' goals this season. Barnet only have 43 goals. They have netted just five goals in six games, two of them at Blackpool in midweek, and have conceded eight times.

It could be worth chancing a high scoring game of over 3.5 goals at 3.814/5. It seems certain that it would have to be over 2.5 goals, priced surprisingly high at 2.111/10,
for Accrington to win, but backers of a home win could well be rewarded.

Recommended Bet
Back Accrington @ 2.245/4

Blackpool 1.84/5 v Morecambe 5.24/1; the draw 4.03/1

It doesn't always work, but there are many occasions when a club with issues on and off the field produces a team which really bands together to perform above all logical expectations. Morecambe are by no means the only club to have faced financial difficulties. But unlike Leyton Orient - who face a winding up petition from HM Revenue and Customs - the Shrimps seem to be pulling together well.

Orient have suffered relegation and fans have been at loggerheads with their board over a period of many months. Have have headed downwards. Morecambe's troubles come simply from being a small club. They are the second worst supported club in the Football League, on fan numbers (behind Accrington), so have always had a tight budget.

The players, twice, have not been paid on time this season and have on-going off-field issues. Yet Jim Bentley and his side have engineered a run of just one defeat in eight games, the latest great result being a midweek 1-1 draw at Portsmouth.

They have beaten Blackpool on both previous competitive occasions the clubs have met, say Opta, including the reverse league fixture. If only Lee Molyneux, who has scored in back to back games after netting only two in his previous 36 games, can add to his tally? The only game the visitors have lost in the last eight is the one in which they failed to score, at home to Barnet when they had Peter Murphy sent off.

They might not score huge numbers of goals very often, but they are on a fantastic away run in two senses: they have not lost in six away games, plus they have only failed to score twice on their travels - the last time 10 games ago.

Paul Mullins, Kevin Ellison, Murphy and Michael Rose are all capable of producing the goods, while losing Tom Barkhuizen to Preston in January doesn't seem to have affected them too badly.

Blackpool, meanwhile, have drawn five of their last seven games and only won once in that time. Plus, they have only won once in five at home. They are hardly deserving of such a short price.

Their last three games have finished 2-2 and they were 2-0 up twice. It is interesting though that they had five different scorers of those goals, with Nathan Delfouneso the only one to score twice. The Swindon loanee has four goals in six starts now, and is hot on the heels of defender Brad Potts (8) and striker Kyle Vassell (10).

However, all in all, a price of 1.84/5 on them to beat Morecambe, a team in form and with a real bond, seems far too short.

Recommended Bet
Lay Blackpool @ 1.84/5

Plymouth 2.1211/10 v Carlisle 3.711/4; the draw 3.814/5

I've often wondered if clubs had the sense to let their players stay a few nights somewhere instead of head back home after a long trip only to endure another a few days later. Especially if a team is based on the extremities of the country. But, of course, it doesn't come down to sense. It comes down to funding.

Boss Keith Curle has voiced his thanks to Carlisle's owners for funding a few nights in Bristol for his squad between trips to Cheltenham and Plymouth. You'd hope it would help the Cumbrians bond even better, even if they just want to licking their wounds at present, after a 1-0 defeat by the Robins.

A mini break should help his side recover, also, from the 3-0 home defeat by Portsmouth, whose sudden assault on a top three stop has really taken shape. Pompey, in fourth, are just two points behind Carlisle and have a far better goal difference.

Carlisle's owners have been under some pressure, having just ended negotiations with a mystery billionaire potential buyer - after 650 days.

Neither of these sides have had the greatest recent form, but it unlike Carlisle to fail to score, as they have in two consecutive games now. Jabo Ibehre needs to up his rate, now that Charlie Wyke has gone, and Jason Kennedy will feel under more pressure to add goals from midfield. Jamie Proctor, point out Opta, has had a hand in their last three away goals, scoring two with one assist. Perhaps he will be the one to step up to the mark here.

Plymouth have also lost to a relegation candidate, Notts County, at home, and while Derek Adams says he is proud of what the Pilgrims have achieved this season he will also be desperate for his charges to get back on track, through create Graham Carey, Jake Jervis or others. Both managers would probably be happy with a draw.

Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.814/5

P/L 2016-17

+43.54pt

Bet £10 On ACCAS or Bet Builders and Get a £2 Free Bet

Bet £10 on Accas, Multiples or Bet Builders, at minimum combined odds of 2.0 (evens) and once the qualifying bet(s) have settled, you'll get a £2 free bet. Free bet valid 48 hours on Accas, Multiples or Bet Builders. T&Cs apply.