League One Playoffs Semi-Finals Tips: Revell to spring a surprise and draw appeals on Saturday

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Stevenage v Stockport Tip - Back Stevenage Match Odds 90 @ 7/52.40

Saturday 9th May, kick-off 15:00, live on Sky Sports
Click here for more Stevenage v Stockport match odds

Stevenage made it to the playoffs by the skin of their teeth on the final day of the season thanks to Dan Sweeney's 90th minute winner against Wigan, and it must have felt ever so sweet to seal the final spot by a point over their fierce rivals Luton.

Stockport ended their season with two defeats from four, but with such a vast gap to Cardiff and Lincoln, their position on 77 was only three points more than Luton too.

The Hatters, the Stockport version not Luton, are favourites to qualify at 4/61.67 with Stevenage at 23/202.15, not a surprise considering Stevenage have never played in the second tier of English football in their history.

Head To Head

This season, Alex Revell had the hex over his opposite number Dave Challinor as Stevenage won both games 1-3 away in December and 2-1 at home in February.

Both games saw Stockport have all the possession with 68% and 71% yet Stevenage with their counter-attack style scored five goal over the two games.

Challinor was furious with a 1-3 defeat in December as his players were miles off the pace and Stevenage's work-rate was far better - mostly without the ball.

Will there be goals?

Although only five teams scored fewer home goals in League One this season than Stevenage (27), they had the best defence on home soil, conceding just 13 goals. It's the fewest goals they've ever conceded at home in a Football League campaign.

It's perhaps why the Under 2.5 Goals is the far shorter at 13/201.65 than the 6/52.20 for Over 2.5 Goals, while the BTTS 'Yes can be backed at 20/231.87 and the 'No' at 9/101.90.

Go for a Revell surprise

With the Match Odds 90 minutes price of 7/52.40 on the hosts, who will need to get at least something from this game to take to the north west, it doesn't look a bad price to play.

Revell will know how his game-plan, ergo work hard without the ball, keep the shape and discipline and let Stockport do their possession thing away from the danger areas.

Stockport are featuring in a second consecutive League One play-off campaign, going out on penalties to Leyton Orient after a 3-3 aggregate draw last season. The Hatters have only won the first leg in one of their seven previous play-off semi-finals (D4 L2), beating Stoke 1-0 in 1991-92, and this is the game to oppose them.

Stevenage's home record of won 14 and lost just two and just 13 conceded in Herts is my bet.

Bet Builder Options

We go into the weekend with the idea Stockport's possession game that centres around Olly Norwood - a player who has enjoyed a fine season as he has created the most chances of any player in League One this season (93), also completing the second-most passes (2,370) of any player. His 42 chances created from set plays were also second only to Stevenage's Harvey White (55).

Possession leads to pressure and corners and over the two games in the regular season, Stockport won both corner counts 5-3 and 7-2.

There's a potential bet to be had with the Stevenage to Score +1 and Stockport +4 corners, which is pretty reasonable at 8/131.61.

There's also the Each Team +2 Corners In Each Half bet at a 9/43.25 price to consider.

Bolton Wanderers v Bradford City Tip - Back The Draw @ 21/202.05

Saturday 9th May, kick-off 20:00, live on Sky Sports
Click here for more Bolton v Bradford match odds

Bolton Wanderers have lost just two of their last 20 matches against Bradford City in all competitions (W7 D11), with both league meetings between the teams in 2025-26 finishing as draws and are rightly the strong favourites here at 8/111.73 in the match odds.

The Trotters are also favourites in the Promotion market at 13/82.63 with Bradford at 7/24.50.

This will be the 10th time that Bolton Wanderers have taken part in the EFL play-offs, the joint-most of any side. Only twice have they won promotion via this method, in 1994-95 and 2000-01 in the second tier.

Food for thought taking the 13/82.63.

Head To Head

The two fixtures over the course of the season between the pair were almost identical. A 0-0 at Bolton in November was followed by a 1-1 recently (25th April).

Both games saw Bolton have 57% and 55% possession, with the shots on target totals similar at 3-3 and 2-4.

Bradford have scored just four goals in their last nine visits to Bolton in all competitions (W1 D4 L4), with 50% of those coming in one game, a 2-1 League Cup victory in September 2020, and with that it surely has to be Under 2.5 Goals and BTTS 'No'.

Backing the draw here too looks the sensible play as Bolton were held to eight stalemates at home this term in the regular season and Bradford six draws and 10 losses and their draw tally away from home was an astonishing 10.

Bradford to rely on defence

Bradford's home defence is in stark contrast to away from home with 17 conceded in Yorkshire yet is double that away.

It's perhaps a slight worry that they failed to keep a clean sheet from their last six matches in the regular season and the Over and Under 2.5 Goals prices are tricky with 'Yes' at 9/101.90 and 'No' at 20/231.87.

During the 2025-26 League One season, Bolton Wanderers had more shots than any other side (772), while only Stevenage (455) faced fewer attempts than the Trotters (461). Meanwhile, the two sides to allow opponents the lowest xG on their goal were Bradford (46.4) and Bolton (48.2).

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