League Two Playoff Semi-finals Tips: Go for goals with Grimsby and Chesterfield on Sunday

Grimsby Town v Salford Tip - Back Grimsby win and BTTS @ 10/34.33

Click here for Grimsby and Salford odds
Sunday 10th May, kick-off 15:00, live on Sky Sports

Betfair Sportsbook's Promotion Market resembles more of a low quality greyhound race than a football market. For those not that close to such niche betting markets I mean the odds are very close, it's a tight betting heat in other words. Certainly there isn't much to split Salford 9/43.25 and Grimsby 3/14.00.

The Mariners have good play-off form. They have lost just one of their prior six EFL play-off matches (W4 D1), a 1-0 defeat to Cheltenham Town in the 2005-06 League Two play-off final.

Grimsby finished strongly with five wins from their last seven matches while Salford fell agonisingly short of the automatic spot with a final day 0-0 at Crawley, leaving Cambridge to mop up the pieces.

David Artell's team won both of their League Two games against Salford this season and were one of three sides to complete a league double over them, along with Chesterfield and Crewe Alexandra.

Those matches were similar in make-up in terms of possession stats and corner count but Grimsby were the victors in March winning 3-1 at home with a deserved 3-1 success.

However, those three goals came in a crazy nine-minute spell and Salford boss Karl Robinson came away thinking the result was baffling.

Goals are in store

Grimsby obviously will figure highly in the match odds winners with the two results and Salford have lost five of their last six matches against Grimsby - all in League Two - with their only win in this sequence coming at Blundell Park in the 2024-25 campaign, a 1-0 victory.

Backing at 1/12.00 for a win is fair enough for the Match Odds, but to boost that, we've got to look at goals again.

Grimsby to win and BTTS 'Yes' at 10/34.33 is too big to ignore here as only MK Dons (86) scored more League Two goals during the regular season than Grimsby (74), while the Mariners topped the charts for shots on target (219, level with Barnet) and xG (75.6) and were second for overall shots (637) and touches in the opposition box (1,308).

Chesterfield v Notts County Tip - Back Chesterfield First Goal in First Half @ 13/102.30

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Sunday 9th May, kick-off 18:00, live on Sky Sports

This is Chesterfield's fifth EFL play-off campaign, winning promotion once in 1994-95 from the fourth tier. Last season, they were knocked out 4-1 on aggregate by Walsall in the League Two semi-finals but they have make it again and are 11/43.75 in the Promotion Market.

Notts County were knocked out in last season's League Two play-off semi-final by eventual winners AFC Wimbledon - the Magpies have lost four of their last five games in the EFL play-offs (D1) since winning 1-0 against Crewe Alexandra back in May 1996.

The Magpies can be backed at 5/23.50 and second favourites in the Promotion Market.

League 2 form is clear - avoid Magpies away

My method with Notts County over the course of the season was simple, as I would often leave them alone away from home and very much keep them onside when at Meadow Lane.

I won't deviate from that here, and while they did land 11 victories away from home, they also suffered eight defeats on the road.

Chesterfield beat Notts County both home and away in the 2025-26 League Two season - the only other side to do a league double over County were Salford City.

Paul Cook's side were unbeaten in their last eight games and secured a brilliant win at Swindon on the final day of the season with my man Dilan Markanday scoring the winner.

Goals the best betting angle to exploit

With Chesterfield you always feel you've got goals on your side.

Chesterfield (15,553) and Notts County (15,602) ranked in the top two for successful passes in League Two this season, while the Spireites had the most open play sequences with 10+ passes (365), ahead only of the Magpies (348).

With possession stats, we can glean some chances and backing the hosts to score in the Team To Score First Goal in First Half market is a generous 13/102.30.

That would have copped five times in the last seven games.

This will be Paul Cook's fourth EFL play-off campaign - across six matches with Chesterfield (L4) and Portsmouth (D1 L1), he is yet to win. Only Uwe Rosler (7) has ever managed more games without winning in the history of the play-offs, and Cook's experience could be telling over the two legs and I prefer Chesterfield for this game.

Alassana Jatta has 34 goals across two seasons for County, though only one of those 34 goals was scored across four appearances against Chesterfield in that time, netting in a 2-2 draw in October 2024 and I'll be waiting to see what he can do in the return leg.

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