Notts County v Salford City Tips: Robinson's Ammies worth backing for Wembley

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Monday 25th May 15:00
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Route to the final

With both narrowly missing out on final automatic spot in the regular season Notts County stifled Chesterfield to nothing with 1-0 and 0-0 results across their two legs in the semi-final, while Salford's two matches with Grimsby provided more drama going down to extra-time in the return leg to triumph 4-3 on aggregate.

Salford City will visit Wembley Stadium for the third time, winning on their two prior trips to the venue - the Ammies beat AFC Fylde 3-0 in the 2019 Conference play-off final and Portsmouth on penalties in the 2021 Football League Trophy final, although they are contesting their first ever EFL play-off final and are aiming to reach the third tier of English football for the first time.

Notts County have reached a play-off final in the EFL for the fourth time, with the previous three coming in the 1990s; the Magpies beat Tranmere Rovers 2-0 in 1990 (3rd tier), Brighton and Hove Albion in 1991 (2nd tier) before losing to Bradford City in 1996 (3rd tier).

Match Odds - it could pay to play Salford and goals

Very similar markets here to the League One playoff final and the Sportsbook are 6/42.50 the pair to win with the draw at 9/52.80, and it appears prices are not swayed by the fact Karl Robinson's side have won each of their last five meetings with Notts County, since a 2-0 home defeat in League Two in September 2023 - that includes 2-1 victories home and away in the 2025-26 campaign.

Over the course of the two games this term their 1-2 win in August was thanks to goals from Adebola Oluwo and Kelly N'Mai, a match they won the corner count too 1-7. The bizarre return game saw three goals all in 90 minutes for a Salford 2-1 again - with Matt Butcher and Ryan Graydon scoring for the Ammies - again a corner count of 7-1 to Salford.

I am leaning here towards Salford but I am not much of a fan of the 6/42.50, but we can back Salford to win and Over 1.5 Goals, which is a more appealing 13/53.60.

Robinson's team are usually attack-minded and scored 61 goals across the regular season with one of the better xG numbers at 1.58, while Notts County scored the most goals at home of any League Two team with 45, but recorded just six shots across their two semi-final matches against Chesterfield, the fewest of any side on record (since 2013-14) in a two-legged EFL play-off tie; in the regular League Two season they ranked 18th for total shots (529), but joint-second for goals scored (74).

That sways me with Salford.

Where do the goals come from?

Salford City's Kallum Cesay scored in both legs of the semi-final tie against Grimsby, the first time he has scored in back-to-back matches as an EFL player; the last player to score in both semi-final legs and the final of the play-offs in a League Two campaign was Port Vale's James Wilson in 2021-22.

Having spent much part of the season out through injury since the turn of the year, Cesay and winger Kelly N'Mai are important players back from injury although the Dutch winger N'Mai has 10 yellow cards in 33 appearance this term - which is a possible angle to explore.

I've often put up Alassana Jatta to score this time, although he hasn't netted in five and was kept quiet across the two legs against Chesterfield. Since the start of last season in League Two, only Bromley's Michael Cheek (41) has struck more goals than County's Jatta (34).

In that time, the Magpies' forward has only played against Colchester more times (4) than Salford (3) without scoring however.

Dan Udoh has been excellent for Salford as a leader in the line too.

Salford in side market an outstanding price

Having outlined Salford's corner supremacy over the course of the two regular season games winning 7-1 away with less possession and another 7-1 at home (also winning the shots on target count there 7-1 too).

Therefore it's surprising to see County as the odds-on favourites in the Corner Match at 10/111.91 versus Salford's 6/52.20 - and considering Salford's corner price is not too far away from their actual price of winning, that's a better bet to strike.

We can also back Salford in the race to two corners at 10/111.91.

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