Bolton v Stockport Tips: Tight Wembley game in store with 11/2 and 8/5 Sunday bets

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Sunday 24th May, 13:00
Live on Sky Sports

Route to the final

This is the sixth time in club history that Bolton Wanderers have reached the EFL play-off finals across the Championship and League One, though both of their attempts at promotion in the third tier have ended in defeat, losing 1-0 to Tranmere Rovers in 1991 and 2-0 to Oxford United in 2024.

Their path to the final was secured with a pair of 1-0 wins home and away versus Bradford with the second leg rather uneventful and a first 45 minutes a painful watch with so much at stake.

Stockport have lost three of their four Football League play-off finals, winning the other against Rochdale in 2007-08. They've lost both finals as a third tier side, against Peterborough United in 1991-92 and Burnley in 1993-94.

Like Bolton, Stockport kept two clean sheets across their two legs against Stevenage and the first tie effectively had killed the second leg with Stevenage blowing their home chance.

The Hatters are one match away from the second tier for the first time in 24 years.

In the Promotion market, you have 5/61.84 the pair.

Match Odds and leaning towards draw

Similar to the promotion market on the Sportsbook, the match odds over 90 minutes is 7/52.40 each of two with the draw at 15/82.88. The layers cannot split them in promotion, nor 90 minutes and it does have the feel have a potential draw match to go all the way.

The 15/82.88 draw is a touch under what we normally like at around 5/23.50 and even 2/13.00, but it's understandable as Bolton were top draw dogs in the division with an astonishing 18. Stockport's wasn't too shabby either with 11.

That was the one nagging doubt with Bolton this season - not being able to convert those draws into wins and the stalemate often came in the face of a team going direct against them and putting 11 men behind the ball.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals a close one

Bolton's home goals far outweighed those that came on the road with 46 against just 24 away. Stockport's record home and away F38 A26 and F33 A32 had a more even look to it although the Trotters held a superior xG figure in total with 1.79 against County's 1.51.

It appears the market is unsure too with the Under 2.5 Goals at 4/51.80 a shade shorter than the 1/12.00 on Over 2.5 Goals.

The Anytime Goalscorer bet served us well with Louie Barry landing a 2/13.00 bet scoring the first goal in the Stevenage second leg, while Kyle Wootton became the second player to score 20 goals in League One (including play-offs) this season, after Leyton Orient's Dom Ballard (23), and the forward also scored against Bolton on the opening day of the season.

There could be a props bet here too with the corners. In both fixtures in the regular season the games churned out 16 corners total in both the 2-2 and 2-0 with the corner counts 12-4 and 9-7.

Backing over 10.5 hopefully gives us a little room to play with at a decent 8/52.60 price.

Take 11/26.50 bet for Method Of Victory

I think wherever you look here, the market is evenly split. Match Odds, Under and Overs, BTTS and even correct score prices are mirrored exactly.

The Draw outright is my favoured bet but playing a Wembley occasion with so much at stake, I prefer the Either Team To Win On Penalties bet here at 11/26.50, if it's going to go down to the wire, backing the draw at 15/82.88 against lasting 30 more minutes for two-and-a-half times the price has got to be the call here.

Both defended so well in the semi-finals and Stockport have won three of their last four games against Bolton (D1), keeping a clean sheet in each victory across that time. This could go down to the wire.

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