Pakistan v Ireland Betting Preview, March 15th

Paul Krishnamurty
14 March 2015

Pakistan may need a captain's innings from Misbah

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The final group match looks set, fittingly, to be an eliminator, with Ireland needing another heroic performance against a test-playing nation to reach the quarter-finals. Paul Krishnamurty says their chances are better than the odds suggest...

Pakistan v Ireland
Sunday, 03:30 GMT
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Pakistan

Whatever the generation, Pakistani cricket sides are always famously erratic and this one is no exception. Prior to the second innings of their last match, they were hopeless, thrashed by India and West Indies and given a proper scare by Zimbabwe. Then out of nowhere, they defend a low total by bowling out South Africa, no less.

If they are to build on that and challenge, it will doubtless be due to a typical Pakistani bowling line-up combining pace and spin. Four have economies below five in this World Cup, a further two less than a run per ball. That's a very impressive return these days. Their batting stats, however, tell a very different story. None of the top order have managed a strike rate of 100, and it repeatedly falls to captain Misbah-ul-Haq to save the day.

Ireland

A poor net run-rate, caused by thrashings at the hands of South Africa and India, mean Ireland will almost certainly need to win in order to give the associate member sides a quarter-final representative. While those two elite sides exposed the gulf in class, the earlier comfortable defeat of West Indies showed they can beat the lesser test nations.

In direct contrast to Pakistan, their strength lies with the bat, while their bowlers lacking the penetration to defend moderate totals. They were comfortably on for 300 against India, before the spinners slowed everything down with wickets and economy to restrict their total to an ordinary 259. In order to compete against Pakistan, they'll need to vastly improve on that mid-innings effort.

First Innings Runs

Adelaide is undoubtably one of the lower scoring grounds. Bangladesh defended 275, albeit against England. India defended 300 with ease against Pakistan. In the last match held here prior to the World Cup, England restricted Australia to just 217. That 300 from India was the highest score since 2005.

Everything points to laying 275 runs or more. Pakistan don't look capable of big scores against competent bowlers and whereas Ireland have got plenty of hitters, they will struggle to get much change out of these spinners.

Match Odds and Special Bets

This is surely a closer match than the odds suggest. There are different tiers of cricketing nations nowadays and Pakistan are not in the top group. If West Indies, who thrashed Pakistan but were beaten by Ireland, are a guide, there is a massive chance of an upset.

I'm sceptical that Ireland's batsmen will cope with spin well enough, but they make obvious appeal as a back to lay trade at 4.47/2. Despite losing the match easily, this trade paid off within seven overs against India.

The best bet, however, lies in the Most Sixes market, where the Irish are clearly under-rated at 13/8. Pakistan's scoring has been very slow, with only the finishers looking like clearing the boundaries. In contrast, all of Ireland's seem prepared to risk their wickets by going all guns blazing.

Top Pakistan Batsman

This is not a batting line-up that one would trust under pressure, with the admirable exception of the captain. Misbah-ul-Haq knows his role is to anchor the innings and be there at the death and is a worthy 4.57/2 favourite.

Top Ireland Batsman

Ed Joyce is the man to beat here, but reflected by odds of just 4.03/1. If not him, this market is wide-open as all of Ireland's top-seven are capable. Andy Balbirnie has enjoyed an excellent tournament, averaging 44, and he's decent value at around 7.06/1 to top-score

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