India v Australia
Sunday 19 November, 08:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
David Warner has looked dangerous consistently in this tournament. Lately, though, he has made starts in four innings and failed to punish the opposition.
The focus of the biggest contest of all could make him less likely to throw his wicket away. At a boosted 7/24.50 we're getting almost 6% points on two year win rates.
We note that Travis Head, who is also 7/24.50, has usurped Warner as the most reliable after topping against South Africa but chasing the rates off the back of the last game is not advised.
Top Australia runscorer win % last two years
M Marsh 17.8
This is a bet which swims against the tide somewhat. But sticking to the principles of betting on what we believe to be a wrong price is key.
KL Rahul gives up the biggest gap between win rate and Sportsbook's odds. So although Rohit Sharma, who remains value on that rationale at a boosted 16/5, Rahul pips him by the barest of margins.
Rahul took 349 runs off Australia in the seven games played between the two this year in India, averaging 87. There's also a smidgen of a chance that if Shubman Gil is not fit he bats higher up the order. Rohit, who played in four of the seven, averaged 31. For the record, Virat Kohli is 13/53.60.
Top India runscorer win % last two years
With confirmation that the match will be played on a used surface, we have a reasonable pointer as to how the wicket will play for the bowlers. India versus Pakistan saw a surface which assisted the India spinners who squeezed the life out of Pakistan's challenge.
Kuldeep Yadav and Ravi Jadeja, therefore, rate fair value at 7/24.50 and 4/15.00 respectively for top bowler. The numbers below are encouraging, too
Top India wicket-taker returns % last two years
Top Australia wicket-taker returns % last two years
Read Ed's World Cup Final Tips here.