India v Australia World Cup Final Tips: Aussies the bet if pitch pick is fair

• Australia need black soil surface

• Ahmedabad surface the key

• India 10/111.00 on margin of victory

• Find out about Betfair's Safer Gambling tools

India v Australia
Sunday 19 November, 08:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

India v Australia World Cup final team news

There remains some debate about whether India change a winning formula. Ravi Ashwin could well be shoehorned into the team at the expense of Mohhamed Siraj, who has been far from disappointing. The pitch is the key, of course. If there spin India will surely grasp that opportunity to skittle Australia.

Shubman Gill must be an injury doubt with a hamstring issue. If he's not fit Ishan Kishan may open the batting alongside Rohit.

Possible XI: Rohit, Kishan, Kohli, Shreyas, Rahul, Yadav, Jadeja, Ashwin, Shami, Kuldeep, Bumrah

Australia made a brave change for Eden Gardens in the semi-final and it paid off. They added the extra batter in Marnus Labuschagne and went with only five bowlers. They may need extra security here with the ball, though, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Marcus Stoinis back.

Probable XI: Warner, Head, M Marsh, Smith, Inglis, Maxwell, Stoinis, Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood, Zampa

India v Australia World Cup final pitch report

Red or black is a familiar gamble. If the Ahmedabad surface is red, that makes turn considerably more likely. If it's black it won't be a turning pitch. As we now know that India have been choosing the pitches themselves, they will favour a red surface.

And if so we can expect an opportunity to short Australia's runs relatively cheaply at 290.

However, the consensus of opinion is that the soild is black and the pitch is the same which saw India roll Pakistan with Rajvi Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav taking two apiece and enjoying tight economies. That there is confusion and gossip about the surface says everything about the tournament. No rain is forecast.

India v Australia World Cup final match odds

India are 1.4640/85 with Australia 3.185/40. That's a big gulf in odds for teams who have met seven times in India this year and the Aussies have won three of them.

We'd be lining up a nibble on that Australia price at those odds, talking up their bowling group sticking their hand up when the pressure is on and how not even India can match them for big-game nous and fight.

But if the pitch is used, red soil and therefore a turner it could be a waste of hard-earned units. The previous meeting in the tournament is instructive. In Chennai on a turner Australia managed 199 with Ashwin, Ravi Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav taking six wickets.

India won by six wickets that day and a similar margin of victory (or 51-60 runs) is available with Sportsbook at 10/111.00.

If it's a fresh pitch, black soil and a fairer fight we'll play on Australia but the advice is to check the wicket on game day. As the news breaks that it's black soild and used, backing the Aussies to get among the Indians and cause some of the panic that the Kiwis did seems decent.

India are, of course, the best side in it and the form of the likes of Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma have been imperious. A classic could be in the making if only the ICC were able to implement tournament regulations.

Read Ed's World Cup Final Player Tips here.