Afghanistan v South Africa World Cup Tips: Last hurrah for Afghans

• Afghanistan value defending

• Klaasen should be backed at 6/17.00

• Ahmedabad pitch may be tricky

Afghanistan v South Africa
Friday 10 November, 08:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Afghanistan v South Africa World Cup team news

Unless you've been living under a rock, you'll be aware that Afghanistan suffered a harrowing loss to Australia. Glenn Maxwell's extraordinary innings ended their tournament. Still, they could go with the same XI as they now firmly favour three frontline spinners.

Probable XI: Gurbaz, Ibrahim, Rahmat, Hashmatullah, Omarzai, Alikhil, Nabi, Rashid, Mujeeb, Naveen, Nor

South Africa have already qualified for the semi-finals. They know they will play Australia regardless of what happens in the last round of matches. Gerald Coetzee could return to the XI with Lungi Ngidi a potential injury doubt.

Possible XI: De Kock, Bavuma, van der Dussen, Markram, Klaasen, Miller, Jansen, Coetzee, Maharaj, Rabada, Shamsi

Afghanistan v South Africa World Cup pitch report

Ahmedabad looked tricky for the side batting first in each of the three games so far. Scores of 282 and 191 in the first two were chased by the Kiwis against England and India against Pakistan. Then Australia's 286 was enough against England. We're inclined to short a potential high par line if South Africa were to bat first.

Afghanistan v South Africa World Cup match odds

Afghanistan are 4.003/1 with South Africa 1.331/3. The Afghans are a very tempting wager but with caveats.

First, we have to accept that defeat by the Aussies has scarred them and they may not be able to get up for this. That is, however, guesswork and we have to stick to what we know to be true.

So the second caveat is they have to bat first. South Africa have admitted they struggle in the chase and on a tired surface against a minimum 30 overs of spin chasing anything around 260 they could wilt. Instead of letting the bet run after New Zealand effectively eliminated Afghanistan, we'll go for a trade, laying back at 2.407/5 with an extra 50% of the original stake on the lay button.

Afghanistan v South Africa World Cup player bets

We're expecting Heinrich Klaasen to win top bat for South Africa for a second time before the tournament is out. Sportsbook go 6/17.00 and that's a nice price. Rahmanullah Gurbaz is in overdue territory at a boosted 3/14.00. We also give Mohammad Nabi a squeak at 13/114.00 with more than a point on win rate versus Sportsbook's probability in our favour. With the ball, Gerald Coetzee is a standout with seven returns from 11 on top SA bowler at 7/24.50.

*Don't miss the World Cup Betting Hub with the Cricket...Only Bettor crew here

Read Ed's World Cup Tips here